S&P
Login links to Saturday Review
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
For all of its gyrations, last week’s range developed entirely within the prior week’s range. So, what information could it provide? Plenty, plus that only puts the market closer to resolving its range. We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1964.25 | 1953.50 |
| …would target | 1971.00 | 1960.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1953.00 | 1942.50 |
| …would target | 1947.50 | 1936.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap… Who needs trending.
Friday’s pre-market Tour’s premises held true throughout the day. Unfortunately.
First, pre-open and post-open selling pressure under 1929.00 didn’t extend down or gain traction. And the balance of the session didn’t trend, but did range back to Thursday afternoon’s highs around 1950.00. The ranging was a little more trending-like than seemed possible for the session. Trending or not, that didn’t matter since the range was so wide.
The unfortunate part is that by not trending, Friday’s pattern leaves no required objective outstanding. More so, Friday was an inside day, its range contained entirely within Thursday’s range. That upward bias within an inside day would have been bearish if not for being a Friday. Meanwhile, the bias environment exit and final hour entry both were within the noon hour’s range, so buyers gained no traction from the last-minute surge to fresh session highs.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture consequences and challenges during this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send login info in the morning. Meanwhile, Friday’s details and other markets coverage were recorded here.
Pre-close View… Back-and-forth Friday.
Trending wasn’t likely, and extending down wasn’t likely. So, once this morning’s noN-bias environment began lapsing, price could hardly wait to leave the lower-end of its range testing 1929.00 for the upper-end up to 1945.00.
Then came the afternoon’s no-bias environment. The 1944.75 bias-up signal’s retest reacted down to 1935.50. Trending was still unlikely, and sellers were still unlikely to regain control, so the dip was largely recovered into the final hour’s entry.
Probing fresh highs momentarily was retraced back under the 1944.75 bias-up signal. But not retraced entirely before the 3:10-3:20 timing window had elapsed. That slight delay may have prevented the balance of the session from sliding even more deeply, instead of just narrowly ranging choppily into the close.
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1955.00 | 1944.75 |
| …would target | 1961.25 | 1950.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1943.75 | 1933.00 |
| …would target | 1937.00 | 1926.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.