S&P
Pre-close View… Either. That’s all. Not or, just either.
This afternoon’s no-bias was signaled cleanly, not even touching the 1944.75 bias-up signal, let alone overlapping it in time to invoke the grace period. Exceeding it through 1:30 nevertheless invalidated whatever had been signaled at 1:20. And that extended 11 points to 1955.50. In 10 minutes.
Must have been some pretty serious buying, right? Actually, it has been retraced entirely, back into the noon hour’s range at 1939.00.
Extending higher through the bias environment’s exit would have been more than just a corrective bounce. A retest of yesterday’s 1992.00 pre-open high would have been in-play. Not extending higher has taken that off the table.
But the alternative is still unknown. Is yesterday’s decline resuming? Possibly. Or, is a temporary dip underway, with another bounce attempt coming? Also possible, albeit less so.
I don’t think today’s pattern will leave us any further instructions going forward — no hold-long or hold-short, only parameters.
Daily Spot… Euro rising.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
There was no more room or time allowed Thursday for further delaying an obvious recovery. Firming did produce a breakout above the multi-session range, now needing confirmation Friday from a second consecutive higher close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s drop to 1100.00 bounced overnight to gap up Thursday morning at 1110.00 resistance. Retesting Wednesday’s low down to 1098.50 would help to form a durable bottom to the recent pullback. Extending much higher too quickly could be too impatient to be maintained.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging continued to avoid the unfinished business below at 14.35, while barely participating in Gold’s gap up, so trending is still not yet credible.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness stopped short of filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s 153-12 open. Two dips had attacked it to within a quarter-point before spiking up on the 30-year auction results. But that reaction melted away, keeping alive the attraction down to 153-12.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight follow-through to Wednesday’s weakness was recovered enough pre-open and extended higher enough post-open to keep alive potential for probing fresh highs soon. But that doesn’t allow room to hesitate in continuing to extend higher, to avoid a much steeper drop.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday from the range’s 2.65 lower-end and extending higher intraday to test the range’s 2.73 upper-end still hasn’t broken above the ongoing channel to trigger a rally leg underway.
The longest yard.
Rally back within proximity of being more than a corrective bounce.
I pointed out before the open that the overnight rally had held precisely at a 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s intraday decline. That natural resistance launched a reversal back down to the bounce’s origin. And through it.
Having probed under the bounce’s origin — i.e. yesterday afternoon’s low, if not also under the overnight low — recovering above their interim high would indicate more than a corrective bounce.
And the overnight high’s 1957.75 corrective bounce peak has been attacked to within 2-1/2 points at 1955.25.
That attack is during an invalidated no-bias environment, which broke above the 1944.75 through 1:30, after failing to trigger it at 1:20. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above its 1949.75 bias-up target would earn the late buyers the same credibility given to Tuesday afternoon’s late buyers (who sponsored a 40-point rally).
But exiting the bias environment under 1949.75 would undermine buyers. And back under 1946.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Other support could prevent resuming yesterday’s decline, but the recovery would have become very suspect.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 11 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two ends of the economic spectrum provide snapshots Friday morning, the pre-open Producer Price Index and post-open Consumer Sentiment. They’re both high-profile, with reliable track records for influencing price action.
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1956.25 | 1944.75 |
| …would target | 1961.25 | 1949.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1946.50 | 1935.00 |
| …would target | 1940.50 | 1929.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, BIAS-UP SIGNAL EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.