S&P
Pre-close view… Lemons from lemonade.
Premature rally crosses the finish line, anyway.
The noon hour’s attack on 1956.50 resistance reacted down too deeply to trigger the 1952.25 bias-up signal at 1:20. Then it extended more deeply to 1947.50, but it was never expected to reverse the trend down. In fact, the no-bias environment recovered back up to the 1952.25 bias-up signal. And then back up to 1956.50.
That’s no-bias trending. Trending beyond a bias signal, which didn’t trigger in time. The bias signal always requires being retested — often, so does the 1:20 print. That’s 1952.25 and 1948.50.
But the recovery extended. A sell signal at 1954.50 was only touched and not triggered. A buy signal that had triggered at 1950.75 remained intact. And it remained intact as the bias environment began lapsing from above the 1957.75 bias-up target. That test has extended up to 1964.00.
So long as 1961.75 and 1960.50 now hold as support, the rally can resume as it seemed ready to this morning. Already testing 1963.25, next higher is 1967.25, and potential for compensating the detour down by extending even higher.
Daily Spot… Stocks steal the show
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Tuesday didn’t quite exploit last week’s failed breakout, but almost any initial strength Tuesday night or Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback had extended slightly lower to test 1115.00, which was retested Tuesday without breaking lower. Back above 1125.70 would suggest the pullback had ended — it was touched Tuesday but not pierced.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Weekend weakness still avoided filling the outstanding opening gap at 14.35 that presumably has been inhibiting a recovery from launching. But that may be left outstanding by a rally leg if not being filled soon.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s sudden pop above a multi-session range had never extended higher intraday, and it held tests of its 155-16 buy signal. Gapping down Tuesday back toward the prior range all but ensures probing under it to fresh lows before another bounce would be credible for extending higher.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holiday weakness never touched the prior low, or probed under it to threaten reversing down. There is no required timing for retesting the recent high and probing above 50.00.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming off of the lower-end of the recent narrow range only attacked the upper-end. That restrained optimism isn’t new, but it still makes credible any early strength Wednesday for extending higher.
Waiting it out.
Noon hour bounce fails to gain traction.
The morning’s 1944.00 objective was touched precisely. That wasn’t necessary, only that it be overlapped. Nevertheless, it was recovered to attack 1956.50. That was the noon hour’s high, and now its reaction down to 1947.50 has avoided triggering this afternoon’s 1952.25 bias-up signal.
That sums up the afternoon — no downside requirement, and an upside seemingly content with trading well into positive territory for the day.
None of which prevents or even prohibits extending down much deeper. Holding 1952.00 earlier would have been optimal to a pullback. In actuality, that was probed 5 points. So, either the pullback rubber band has been stretched unnecessarily tight (which should be proved by surging higher), or it’s about to break lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 9 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s JOLTS report has become as reliably influential to price action as the prior week’s Employment Situation report, itself. But there isn’t any other report to leverage a reaction.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1954.25 | 1952.25 |
| …would target | 1959.75 | 1957.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1947.00 | 1945.00 |
| …would target | 1940.75 | 1938.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.