S&P
Post-open Review… Sentiment extreme, after all.
Pre-open dip extends too low and for too long, but is that phase done?
As we discussed during the pre-market Tour, resuming the overnight rally above 1961.00 would be likelier if its reaction down could stay away from 1952.00 or at least reject its test quickly. It did neither.
But the test of 1952.00 did eventually try to recover. It peaked at 1959.25, whose recovery would have confirmed the pre-open dip had failed. Testing its resistance so late served a different purpose, reversing down to fresh lows under 1950.00.
The consequence to a sentiment extreme was a pullback to 1944.00. Not suffering the consequence this morning would have required a deeper consequence later. But 1944.00 has been touched, offsetting the extreme sentiment’s optimism with pessimism.
Exiting the bias environment under the low of 1944.00‘s test (which happens to be 1944.00) would suggest the that a deeper consequence lay in store, anyway. Meanwhile, the nearest buy signal is currently 1950.50.
The First Trade… Laborious night, too.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down to 1920.50 ranged sideways into the noon hour, holding two tests of 1930.00. A late break to 1908.00 was recovered to retest the morning’s highs, but he close settled back around the 1920.50 open. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open ranged sideways for awhile, but had rallied to test 1944.00 by midnight, +14 points from Friday’s close. Its reaction down into Monday’s Globex close held 1930.00 as support. Opening there last night bounced again, but even a more substantial rally has been underway up to 1961.00, +39 points from Friday’s close.
If, then…
Greeting the week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. The gap up indicated for Tuesday’s open is attacking natural resistance at 1960.50 which the rally seems intent on testing. But there’s still room to become even more extreme up to 1963.25 and 1967.25. Testing either one at the open would be likelier to reverse back down. The likelihood for extending higher would become suspicious if pullbacks didn’t hold 1956.50.
First Trade…
Today’s bias parameters are far below, so not very relevant. I’ll have levels on-screen in the chaRTroom.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 8 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is busy, but nothing much is high-profile, let alone with any track record of influencing price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1923.50 | 1921.50 |
| …would target | 1929.00 | 1927.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1914.25 | 1912.25 |
| …would target | 1909.00 | 1907.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market closing comments will be
Market closing comments will be published over the weekend, when you”ll also receive new login instructions. Please contact me with any questions or for any assistance. Meanwhile, here”s Friday”s post-market Wrap, the extended version that includes a bigger picture review since there”s no Saturday Review this holiday weekend:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrzppw