S&P
Globex is open. Only several
Globex is open. Only several minutes have elapsed, so it is premature to identify any particular sentiment. But Friday”s late surge isn”t being rejected. So, there”s that. Here are tonight”s chaRTroom links:
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Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/8/15) … Getting real.
The week”s ultimate decline tested the pullback limit that would keep alive a path to new highs. Oh, and then that pullback limit broke. It didn”t break decisively, mostly because of its timing. During this weekend”s Saturday Review, we discussed the specific price action that would invalidate Friday”s break or confirm it, and the consequences to either. We also reviewed individual stock chart analysis requests, listed above the chat”s transcript.
AAPL, SUNE, CNX, PAAS, SAND, NGD, TNET, TREE, BOFI, SC
08/08/2015 09:35:03 MK: gm
08/08/2015 09:36:08 Bill G: good
08/08/2015 09:36:10 charlie: hi0
08/08/2015 09:36:43 Mark Glezer: gm
08/08/2015 09:41:29 MK: that looks awfully familiar
08/08/2015 09:42:48 MK: yes
08/08/2015 09:43:40 MK: i meant yesterdays action
08/08/2015 09:43:58 MK: the 3rd”s vs the 8ths
08/08/2015 09:52:11 MK: there are a lot of people putting their necks out now saying any bounce from here should be faded
08/08/2015 09:53:28 Mark Glezer: if 2035 objective will be in play on Mon would u expect anyy particular behavior on the path there?
08/08/2015 09:55:36 Mark Glezer: meaning in can still take a few days or a week with interim bounces right?
08/08/2015 09:59:04 MK: interesting tidbit
08/08/2015 09:59:37 MK: Since 2000 when DJIA closes lower for 7 consecutive sessions (Win rate 80% avg REturn 4.5%)
08/08/2015 10:00:05 MK: Since 1970 (Win rate 42% average return -0.14%)
08/08/2015 10:00:55 MK: if long
08/08/2015 10:00:58 MK: on session 8
08/08/2015 10:01:15 MK: after 1 month
08/08/2015 10:01:27 MK: but if you include 1970
08/08/2015 10:01:31 MK: to now
08/08/2015 10:01:32 MK: so
08/08/2015 10:01:39 MK: its massively clustered
08/08/2015 10:01:57 MK: 1970 – 2000 that number is a 20% win rate
08/08/2015 10:02:08 MK: and a return of -3.7%
08/08/2015 10:02:31 MK: QE vs non QE
08/08/2015 10:02:45 MK: guy on twitter called Chad Gassaway
08/08/2015 10:06:45 Rod David: m r: Could the overlap action at 2084 and 2077 be an analog for what we may still see aroud 2099 – 2105…meaning, could we still see testing above 2099 – 2105 to the same degree that we”ve seen testing below that area?
08/08/2015 10:08:33 MK: can we do some einhorn positions?
08/08/2015 10:08:39 Rod David: m r: Haven”t we been anticipating seeing the Dow coparatively outperform as evidence of the long term uptrend finally being done (not JUST the new appearance of relative weakness in NDX)?
08/08/2015 10:09:15 MK: SUNE
08/08/2015 10:09:17 MK: CNX
08/08/2015 10:09:28 MK: I got long both of those yesterday
08/08/2015 10:09:31 MK: just for S&G
08/08/2015 10:10:38 Rod David: m r: I thought that the concept was big money that HAS to be in stocks, rotates from speculation into DOw
08/08/2015 10:14:19 MK: I still believe that RUT is a better indication of speculation than NDX
08/08/2015 10:20:56 Bill G: Schaeffer had a similar study on mkt after 7 consecutive losses with 1day,1wk,2wk,1 month performance. The avg 1day,1 wk was neg and 2wk,1month was positive. The problem was in all time frames less than half the cases had positive returns. The results were skewed by positve occurences had greater % gains than the% losses on the dn occurrences.
08/08/2015 10:22:24 Mark Glezer: we have been looking for new highs for awhile but every time area above 2100 is met with a very aggressive sell-off and now NDX is finally underperforming. Perhaps we have seen the high in ES?
08/08/2015 10:27:29 Bill G: Do these guys do a lot of coal?
08/08/2015 10:29:21 MK: can we do some miners?
08/08/2015 10:29:23 MK: PAAS
08/08/2015 10:29:49 MK: SAND
08/08/2015 10:31:44 MK: NGD
08/08/2015 10:32:04 MK: Also TNET
08/08/2015 10:35:12 MK: I feel like there”s a lot of optionality here in SAND
08/08/2015 10:35:25 MK: sigh
08/08/2015 10:35:35 MK: rod you are such a negative nancy
08/08/2015 10:37:16 MK: RE: Gold CEF is a gold/silver holding company in Canada. Its Discount to NAV is now at its highest point ever.
08/08/2015 10:37:30 MK: Which atually in the past
08/08/2015 10:37:39 MK: has worked well when it diverges with gold price action
08/08/2015 10:37:41 MK: at turning points
08/08/2015 10:38:02 MK: RE:NGD I ACCUMULATED here
08/08/2015 10:38:08 MK: if you want signs of accumulation
08/08/2015 10:39:42 MK: OH WOW
08/08/2015 10:39:58 MK: NO
08/08/2015 10:40:03 MK: that was just a musing
08/08/2015 10:40:09 MK: at 26
08/08/2015 10:40:15 MK: was when i last looked at it
08/08/2015 10:40:19 MK: nevermind
08/08/2015 10:40:37 MK: TNET isn”t gold
08/08/2015 10:40:48 MK: they do HR outsourcing for SF tech bubble
08/08/2015 10:42:48 MK: OH wait
08/08/2015 10:42:52 MK: is there time for 2 more stocks?
08/08/2015 10:43:06 MK: TREE and BOFI
08/08/2015 10:43:14 MK: I can”t wait to short those two
08/08/2015 10:43:55 MK: Lending tree is a middleman for mortgages
08/08/2015 10:44:10 MK: and BOFI does LIAR loans
08/08/2015 10:45:47 MK: hahah
08/08/2015 10:46:00 MK: neither chart is shortable
08/08/2015 10:46:07 MK: just wanted to get them on board with levels
08/08/2015 10:46:10 MK: so when i bring them up
08/08/2015 10:46:56 MK: complex ascending triangle in aprl/may
08/08/2015 10:48:12 MK: both stocks have 20% short interest
08/08/2015 10:48:40 MK: oh
08/08/2015 10:48:42 MK: also
08/08/2015 10:48:43 MK: SC
08/08/2015 10:48:44 MK: sorry
08/08/2015 10:48:50 MK: no
08/08/2015 10:48:52 MK: just the first 2
08/08/2015 10:48:58 MK: SC has been at the forefront
08/08/2015 10:49:03 MK: of Subprime lending
08/08/2015 10:49:05 MK: for autos
08/08/2015 10:49:10 MK: yeah
08/08/2015 10:49:12 MK: crushed it
08/08/2015 10:49:12 MK: thanks
08/08/2015 10:49:24 MK: got 3.25 points off that buy
08/08/2015 10:50:09 MK: now i want to short this
08/08/2015 10:50:12 MK: but dont” want to chase it
08/08/2015 10:50:17 MK: so bounce?
08/08/2015 10:50:29 MK: high 24”s
08/08/2015 10:50:36 MK: high 25s
08/08/2015 10:50:36 MK: ok
08/08/2015 10:52:05 Mark Glezer: thx much
08/08/2015 10:52:14 MK: thanks for fielding all the stocks
08/08/2015 10:52:21 Bill G: thanks
08/08/2015 10:52:22 charlie: tks
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Friday”s late surge squeezed itself
Friday”s late surge squeezed itself in between the 3:10-3:20 timing window and the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window. Originating and ending outside of relevant timing windows makes its sponsorship weak-handed. That”s optimism.
That weak-handed sponsorship met a relevant level at 2073, without closing above it. That”s ineffectual optimism.
That ineffectual optimism originated from sideways ranging that had developed through two consecutive timing windows, a consolidation that began at the low of a steep, deep decline. The setup is vulnerable to breaking falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the other direction.
Extending higher anyway after the weekend would likely begin by gapping up sharply, above 2080-2082. So, hold-short wasn”t very compelling. Otherwise, Friday”s consolidation was already vulnerable to extending down. Stretching the rubber band Friday afternoon would only help.
We”ll discuss this in greater detail, along with setups and your chart analysis requests, at this weekend”s Saturday Review. It begins at 9:30am ET, and I”ll send a reminder in the morning. Meanwhile, details from the post-market Tour and other markets coverage are available in its recording here:
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Saturday Review 9:30am ET
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Pre-close view… Going for three.
Two consecutive timing windows ranged relatively narrowly. They were choppy, but didn”t trend. Two often becomes three, so won”t be surprising if the range were to persist through the final hour.
Exiting the bias environment beyond the noon hour”s range could have signaled trending. Entering the final hour above the bias environment”s 2067.00 high and the noon hour”s 2068.00 high would still be credible for trying to gain traction.
In fact, 2067.00 is being probed now, attacking 2068.00. But remember that potential for two sideways ranges to become three? An attempt to break them in one direction can ricochet more substantially in the opposite direction.
Whichever direction the range does break, if at all, monitor confirmation from the 3:10-3:20 timing window extending to fresh afternoon extremes.