S&P
Daily Spot… Reacting to payrolls.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s knee-jerk reaction to the Employment Situation report spiked up through the 1.0920-1.0945 bounce limit to test 1.0980. Its retracement held above 1.0855 support, and then recovered to attack 1.0985. Closing above the bounce limit does undermine the decline”s momentum, which would be reinstated by closing back under it.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing intraday under both 1087.00 and 1083.00 Friday was recovered by a surge up to attack 1100.00, holding 1094.00 as support to make a more successful probe above 1100.00 easier.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging to attack 15.00 and holding a reaction down to 14.75 support makes a higher close Monday more credible for extending sharply higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s Employment Situation report facilitated a test of the outstanding 158-08 target that attacked 158-16. Although no higher target is in-play, a pullback has room down to 157-08/157-20 before suggesting the rally”s momentum has peaked.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having failed to bounce Thursday from fulfilling the 44.25 target, fresh lows were likely, which Friday fulfilled incidentally by ranging narrowly.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA reaction had recovered from probing under 2.77 to test the 2.82 buy signal. Reacting back down to 2.77 Friday was recovered to attack 2.82. Confirming its recovery above 2.88 would be likely to trend sharply higher.
Getting too comfortable.
Hovering complacently at the lows isn”t strength.
This morning”s 2066.00 bias-down target was met along the way down to 2062.75. Sideways ranging since the morning”s bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 has persisted into the afternoon”s bias environment beginning at 1:20. All of which has been centered around 2066.00.
Touching this afternoon”s 2064.00 bias-down signal within 3 minutes of 1:20 invoked the grace period. A blip-down to fresh lows was recovered back to 2064.00 at 1:30, triggering noN-bias.
Not a bias-down targeting 2059.00. Not a no-bias likelier to bounce back up to 2073.00. But a noN-bias with no requirements. These tend to sit rather still for the hour, but that”s no reason to hold a short.
A better reason to at least monitor for a short-entry is that hovering complacently at the low of a downleg is not necessarily a sign of strength. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s 2068.00 high would be the earliest indication of recovery potential.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 10 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Mondays are often quiet, as are noon hours, both of which are livened up this week by a Fed speaker.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:25 PM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2078.50 | 2073.00 |
| …would target | 2083.75 | 2078.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2069.50 | 2064.00 |
| …would target | 2064.50 | 2059.00 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… False negative.
Choppy, narrow open finally gives way. For a moment.
The pre-open reaction to this morning”s Employment Situation report had attacked 2071.00. Reacting up to touch the 2082.50 overnight high proved only temporary, and the open was greeted back under 2077.00. Soon 2071.00 was being attacked again.
That pre-open volatility proved deceptive. It had sucked out any post-open trending attempt. Volatility remained high, albeit in a narrower 5-point range centered around the 2073.00 bias-down signal — 6-7 swings around 2073.00.
The range ended, but apparently not the volatility.
The grace period triggered bias-down from under the open”s range. That tends to offset the signal having been triggered late. But despite extending down to 2067.25, a bounce is now probing back above 2073.00.
The late signal can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above the open”s range, which is 2077.00 or better. Any shallower of an exit would make the 2066.00 bias-down target become “unfinished business below.”