S&P
Daily Spot… Crude Oil meets its refined target.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Thursday off of Wednesday”s test of 1.0855 support tested 1.0920-1.0945 resistance to remain only a bounce refueling sellers. Back under 1.0900 would resume the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing of 1083.00-1087.00 support bounced Thursday up to 1093.00 resistance, not yet breaking the range either way to signal trending in that direction. Above 1100.00-1105.00 would signal an upleg underway, and the risk is to fresh lows at 1062.00 or 1050.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly around 14.55 continued to avoid trending, which would be signaled beyond either end of the 14.35-14.90 range.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The recovery from Wednesday”s 155-06 low extended higher Thursday to probe above 157-00, targeting a retest of Monday”s 157-30 high up to 158-08 so long as 155-16 now holds as support.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows Thursday morning fulfilled the 44.25 target. The decline wasn”t rejected by a bounce, or renewed by closing below it, making fresh lows likely, even if only temporarily.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing a nickel under 2.77 ahead of Thursday”s EIA report reacted up sharply to test the 2.83 buy signal. It held its test for now, but remains the buy signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 7 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Friday morning”s only econ report is also one of the most reliably influential to price action,
monthly payrolls.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.50 | 2080.25 |
| …would target | 2091.00 | 2086.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.00 | 2073.00 |
| …would target | 2071.25 | 2066.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Scramble for the exits.
Probing the bias-down target meant buyers were overwhelmed.
Despite its steep reaction up from touching the 2083.25 bias-down target, I was monitoring for a pullback to 2085.00 before buying the bottoming attempt.
But first, the reaction extended back up to this morning”s 2088.75 bias-down signal. And its reaction down fell under 2084.00 and 2084.00. That”s when the recovery template inverted.
In the chaRTroom I noted the danger of that setup, failing to exploit two consecutive recovery setups, as determined by producing a fresh low under 2083.25. When the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, fresh lows were on their way down to 2074.75.
Holding a test of 2077.00 could be as bullish as holding any higher support. More so in some ways, for expending more selling pressure to fulling more support. If it holds.
But 2077.00 is pretty much the last line of defense, with room for noise down to 2073.00. Any lower would start requiring the decline to retest Greece”s 2035.00 lows — and there”s no bullish reason for that.
Post-open review… Double reset.
Another corrective bounce traps even more longs.
Rather than extend down overnight, yesterday afternoon”s high was retested pre-open. It wasn”t needed, but that reset the decline again.
So, the pre-market Tour”s strategy was to get short quickly. The shallow post-open bounce didn”t suggest otherwise, and soon 2088.75 was being tested. It is also this morning”s bias-down signal, and it ultimately triggered
Now this morning”s 2083.25 bias-down target has been touched. Oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the low will require its eventual retest. But they were higher lows (technicals), and it was 10:30 (timing), at the target (pricing). Its reaction is already up 5 almost points.
Although the recovery could extend higher uninterrupted, I”m monitoring for a pullback to test 2085.00-2086.25 (being tested now).
This is the same template that could have greeted the open in recovery mode after satisfying unfinished business below overnight. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2088.75 bias-down signal would indicate the selling was likely done, and above 2092.25 that buyers had retaken control.