S&P
Thursday”s pre-market Tour is available
Thursday”s pre-market Tour is available in two recordings, linked below… A surge had retested yesterday afternoon”s 2098.50 high, which is assumed to have been the peak of a corrective bounce so the decline could resume. But the decline has not resumed, not yet, so gapping up to and through the 2098.50 area could still rally back to yesterday morning”s highs. Otherwise, fresh lows remain likely.
Details were recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxsrjw
Other markets coverage was recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjkmtw
The First Trade…. Holding pattern patter.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s open resumed and extended the overnight rally, renewing the bias-up signal, and testing the 2105.50 renewed bias-up target to 2107.00. That ended with the morning bias environment”s exit, which began a 15-point slide to 2091.00 into the afternoon bias environment”s entry. A corrective bounce to 2098.50 resumed sliding into the close, leaving the afternoon”s 2088.75 bias-down target outstanding.
Overnight action”s new info…
The late slide extended to within 1 tick of Wednesday”s low at 2091.00. Bouncing 5 points to test 2096.00 in positive territory retraced the slide by 61.8%. Its reaction down has held 2092.00.
If, then…
Wednesday afternoon”s corrective bounce was intended to restart the decline so it could fulfill unfinished business below at the afternoon”s 2088.75 bias-down target. That could have been neutralized overnight by testing it, or neutralized overnight by rallying back above Wednesday afternoon”s highs. Not doing either makes the decline likely to resume this morning, still capable of holding a test of 2088.75, but not as likely — and now it is also this morning”s bias-down signal.
First Trade…
This morning”s preliminary signals don”t seem very informative. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2088.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2097.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.75 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2111.75 | 2105.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.00 | 2088.75 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2083.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Wednesday afternoon”s corrective bounce peaked
Wednesday afternoon”s corrective bounce peaked at 2098.50, where the noon hour was entered. Entering the noon hour any lower would have reflected so much selling pressure that the balance of the session would have trended down instead of ranging sideways. So, not exploiting the opportunity to recover 2098.50 does suggest lower lows are likely.
Wednesday afternoon”s outstanding 2088.75 bias-down target also suggest lower lows are likely. So does the 2090.75 low”s oversold RSIs that require a retest. Since Wednesday”s entire session developed in positive territory, neutralizing these lower attractions overnight could still greet Thursday”s open recovering into positive territory. Not already recovering from their overnight tests would likely gap down even more sharply.
Fresh lows can be avoided altogether. It”s the least likely scenario, but gapping up above 2099.25-2101.50 would be likely to retest Wednesday”s highs that tested 2105.50. Gapping up and immediately recovering 2105.50 would simply target new highs.
Details and other markets coverage are in the post-market Tour recorded at
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjkjzs
After 6:30 ET tonight, use the following links to monitor the chaRTroom overnight:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/520-238-492
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Pre-close view… Busted template, active pattern.
Session-long nothing, as bounce extends.
This afternoon”s 2095.50 bias-down signal triggered. It was no more productive after 1:20 than before, so it could have been invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the prior timing window”s high.
But the bias environment exit was still overlapping 2095.50. While probing above it, but still overlapping it. Its 2088.75 bias-down target now becomes “unfinished business below” that must be tested eventually.
Meanwhile, sloppy ranging between 2091.00-2095.50 needed to be reset. Breaking back above 2094.50 triggered a buy signal targeting at least 2097.50, and potentially 2099.50. It just tested 2098.50, which is sufficient to launch a new downleg into the close back under 2096.00.
Extending higher anyway would next target 2101.50, whose recovery would resume the rally from yesterday”s lows.