S&P
Daily Spot…Volatility gets a jolt.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Lower lows Tuesday night reacted up from 1.0855 support, which Wednesday retested reacted up, too. Although that was the decline”s original target, the current decline still stopped optimistically short of retracing entirely back down to prior lows. This suggests this is not just a retest of prior low, but a new downleg.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Without gapping open either way Wednesday, the template”s symmetry has been invalidated. Closing under 1087.00 and 1083.00 with confirmation the following day puts into play fresh lows targeting 1062.00 and potentially also 1050.00. There is otherwise room back up to 1100.00 before signaling a rally underway
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging dipped to retest the 14.55 support that must hold tests to avoid launching a new downleg.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday extended Tuesday”s pullback, probing under the 156-24 pullback limit and testing the 155-16 sell signal. The day”s 155-07 low represents a 61.8% retracement of the latest upleg, which is an appropriate spot to launch a retest of the high up to 158-08 that satisfies remaining buying pressure.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially firming further Wednesday came within a nickel of the 46.75 bounce limit before the EIA report triggered a return to fresh lows attacking the 44.25 target..
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s gap up above Tuesday”s high was retraced 61.8% back into Tuesday”s range. Tuesday”s breakout wasn”t confirmed, but also not rejected, and back above 2.83 would now signal a rally leg is underway.
Session-long what?
Noon hour”s downdraft threatens to invert earlier bullishness.
2107.00 was visited while testing this morning”s 2105.50 renewed bias-up target.That didn”t extend, and the balance of the bias environment ranged narrowly sideways, hovering under 2105.50.
Until the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. That timing window”s end was greeted by what has been relentless selling that just touched 2092.75.
Has the session-long rally setup inverted? Almost, but not quite. The bias environment finished lapsing at noon back AT the morning”s 2098.50 bias-up target, not UNDER it. That hasn”t prevented the noon from extending down, but it does suggest the lower lows will be recovered.
Triggering the afternoon”s 2095.50 bias-down signal can still invert the session-long rally. The remaining timing windows would be likely to trend down.
Otherwise, triggering no-bias by recovering 2095.50 at 1:20 would make the balance of the session likely to trend up. Not necessarily all the way back up to session highs, but trending higher nonetheless.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 6 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s calendar is busy, but not very influential to price action. The BOE policy statement may have some effect, and Jobless Claims are of greater interest this week with Friday”s payrolls report following so closely.
*BOE Policy Statement
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Payroll to Population
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.25 | 2102.75 |
| …would target | 2114.25 | 2107.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2102.00 | 2095.50 |
| 1…would target | 2095.25 | 2088.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Follow-through.
Renewed bias-up target met, exceeded.
I described during the pre-market Tour why last night”s rally was likelier than most to extend higher post-open. Its 6-point pre-open pullback had firmed to open at 2098.50, this morning”s bias-up target. Immediately extending higher attacked the overnight high, and trending higher through a couple of econ reports eventually fulfilled the 2105.50 renewed bias-up target.
Influence of bias parameters diminishes with each renewal. So, exceeding the 2105.50 renewed bias-up target through 10:15 wouldn”t have been required to extend higher. By the same token, still testing the renewed target at 10:15 doesn”t necessarily limit the upside.
The session-long rally setup remains intact. Each timing window but one should probe its prior timing window”s high. Inverting this setup would require a significant reaction down before the noon hour. But fresh highs were just probed through 9:30, now testing 2107.00.
Despite the bias parameters losing influence on each renewal, the next higher objective would be 2111.25 so long as 2105.50”s recovery is maintained. The 1-minute RSI hasn”t been overbought since the open, which suggests that buyers are barely breaking a sweat.