S&P
The overnight rally accelerated and
The overnight rally accelerated and extended, probing 7 points above yesterday”s high at 2103.25. Now a pullback is testing this morning”s 2098.50 bias-up target as support. Holding 2095.50 or failing to hold it can be predictive of this morning”s price action, if not also for the day, since its resolution might invert a “session-long rally” setup. Details, consequences, and other market coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyrypj
The First Trade… Getting the heck out of Dodge.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s no-bias environment tested its 2095.50 bias-up signal before being dragged down into the afternoon to 2081.50. Bouncing back up to 2090.00 still managed only barely to close above the relevant 2084.00 and avoid putting into play 2077.00. But it was an “inside day” that had little predictive value, apart from leaving oversold RSIs outstanding at the low which require a retest.
Overnight action”s new info…
After ending the day at Tuesday”s lows, overnight rallying is attacking Tuesday”s highs. Initially attacking Tuesday”s 2081.50 low to within 3 ticks has since trended back up, eventually probing above Tuesday”s late 2090.00 high, and the afternoon bias environment”s 2092.25 high, now within 1 tick of yesterday”s 2096.25 high.
If, then…
Fresh lows testing 2077.00 become more likely as a recovery is delayed. And the vulnerability increases for gapping down. So, it”s fitting that the vulnerability below can be neutralized by gapping up — above Tuesday afternoon”s 2092.50 high. Greeting the cash session from within Tuesday afternoon”s range would still be vulnerable to trending down intraday. And having rallied so strongly and relentlessly overnight, the biggest threat to a rally is if new sponsorship isn”t attracted after expending so much energy overnight.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2092.50 would be likely to trigger the 2091.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2099.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2098.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2088.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
“Planned maintenance” Or, so they
“Planned maintenance”
Or, so they say, despite there having been no advance customer notice before taking all services off-line for several hours mid-week. Anyway, if the ISP isn”t yet available by 7:00am ET as they assured me 3 hours ago, then I”ll switch over to my redundant network. At that time, please use one of the following chaRTroom links:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/910-915-043
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2097.75 | 2091.00 |
| …would target | 2105.00 | 2098.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2089.00 | 2082.50 |
| …would target | 2083.75 | 2077.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Tuesday”s open needed to extend
Tuesday”s open needed to extend higher with little delay to anticipate a morning rally. Not that the alternative was down. Trending, at all, is difficult to start too much after the open. And trying to trend too late can be contrarian. That was the case Tuesday, which waited until triggering no-bias before testing its bias-up signal, and then essentially trended down through the balance of the session.
2084 was retested as support and was recovered again through the close. Which means nothing — that doesn”t prevent extending down Wednesday or require recovering. Closing under 2084 would have put into play 2077, but a separate signal can put that into play.
Perhaps the most bullish element to Tuesday”s price action is that it didn”t exploit opportunities to establish lower objectives. The example above of holding 2084 as support is all the more relevant for coming after a bounce that had neutralized upside attractions (due to no-bias trending).
So, extending down to 2077 at this stage could gap down to it Wednesday to compensate for the delay. By the same token, gapping up above Tuesday afternoon”s 2090 high could resume the recovery attempt that had been underway.
Details and other markets were discussed during the post-market Wrap here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptbtvs
Links for monitoring overnight action in the chaRTroom will change after 6:30pm ET to:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/837-620-719
non-xp friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy