S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still fluctuating narrowly around 1.1.400 into the weekend has avoided confirming the buy signal triggered above 1.1370, but maintains potential to rally out of the weekend.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs above 1253.00 could be launching a new rally leg, albeit less aggressively than would be optimal, and needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing out of the 12.45 test Friday retested the 12.65 buy signal up to prior highs, still needing at least one more higher close to confirm the signal, while still remaining vulnerable to resuming the decline.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already having fulfilled its minimum objective of a third higher close on Thursday, Friday’s payrolls was greeted from a position of strength. Which didn’t prevent reacting down or require a recovery, but may have limited the reaction down and still ensures a recovery.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still forming a bottom, Thursday’s fresh low was absorbed but Friday’s gap up was again premature and excessive optimism to launch a reliable rally leg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Testing the 4.31 pullback limit overnight was recovered intraday back above 4.44 to attack 4.63 whose recovery would confirm the next rally leg underway.
Mid-day Update… Done, or down.
If sellers aren’t finished, then they’re just getting started.
This morning’s reversal of its post-o0pen relief rally has extended down to 2642.50. That tests the afternoon bias-down target by 2 ticks. The 2650.50 bias-down signal held through its grace period to trigger late no-bias.
But it’s still being tested. And this is a Friday. A late bias signal is already less reliable. Extending to fresh lows would likely target 2626.00. Which already held a test yesterday, so there’s no bullish reason to be revisiting it.
Extending lower probably requires participants to become impatient with not bouncing again into the close. Back above 2662.00 would start to signal that bounce underway. Until then — whether during or after this afternoon’s no-bias environment lapses — the pattern remains vulnerable to extending down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 10, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Jobs Openings report tends to influence price action all the more when the prior Friday’s Employment Situation report was a surprise, and especially if JOLTS contradicts it. Similarly, any knee-jerk reaction upon reinforcing Friday’s report would likely reverse.
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2668.00 | 2668.25 |
| …would target | 2679.50 | 2679.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2650.00 | 2650.50 |
| …would target | 2642.50 | 2643.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Life comes at you fast.
Relief rally reverses quickly to test support.
Greeting the Employment Situation report at 2685.00 reacted up relatively shallowly to 2693.00, so wide is the range.
This confirmed suspicion #1 that any focus on the report was mostly to get beyond it, and not that its data or reaction would guide intraday price action.
Suspicion #2 was that the shallow reaction would be rewarded with a relief rally, to whatever degree, probing above yesterday’s late 2699.00 high. That arrived in a post-open surge to within 5 ticks of this morning’s 2711.00 bias-up target.
Then sellers arrived, and the action really began. Reversing back under the 2702.50 bias-up signal put into play an offsetting test of the 2680.25 bias-down signal. Which was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And then triggered through 10:30.
The 2668.00 bias-down target was soon pierced by 2 ticks. Fresh lows after both 10:10 and 10:30 are difficult to reverse, regardless of the objectives being met — especially when the low is accompanied by simultaneously oversold RSIs. So, be careful with buy signals, the earliest being back above 2680.25. The downside’s limitation is to tests of 2656.00 and 2626.00.