S&P
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2619.25 | 2620.75 |
| …would target | 2632.75 | 2634.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2591.50 | 2593.00 |
| …would target | 2580.50 | 2582.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back to business?
Pre-open rally briefly probes positive territory.
Sunday night’s gap down and first-hour dip to 2609.50 was finally recovered to probe positive territory up to 2645.00. 
Before the open. Reacting down 14-16 points into the open had yet to correct. A post-open bounce tested 2639.00 — retracing 61.8% of the pre-open drop.
The bounce is normal. But delaying the correction until post-open often develops into a complete recovery. Today’s delayed 61.8% correction did hold, and did reverse down to attack the overnight low at 2609.75.
Despite stopping optimistically short of touching the overnight low, a bounce retested the bias-down signal up to 2639.50. And THEN resolved down. Fresh lows are now probing under Oct’s 2603.00 low to 2598.25.
The open’s delayed bounce was ineffectual pessimism, which is usually bullish from a contrarian perspective. The post-open low’s first bounce from only attacking the overnight low is ineffectual optimism — which has now resolved appropriately. Either the open’s bounce was an anomaly and a much bigger downleg is underway, or else October’s low is being retested to form a more durable bottom.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Isolation reversal setup, or else.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted in negative territory, but its reaction attacked Thursday’s 2699.00 closing high pre-open. A little post-open relief rally into positive territory was likely regardless of its resolution. Almost immediately attacking the 2711.00 bias-up target to within 5 ticks began reversing down almost immediately. And then relentlessly. The final hour was greeted 86-1/2 points lower attacking 2623.00. The final hour’s reaction stopped 4 points short of 2656.00 which could have signaled sellers were waning. Closing above 2626.00 (at 2633.50-2636.00) avoided signaling a new lower target is in-play.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex open gapped down to 2625.00, just above Friday’s low, then probed lower to attack 2610.00. Down 23-26 points, probing fresh low, all before the first hour had lapsed. That was also the low. Hovering in a narrow range up to 2621.00, and under Friday’s lows started breaking higher into Europe’s opens, first attacking and later testing 2632.00. Stopping pessimistically short of unchanged, still too early to be considered bullish from a contrarian perspective.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not formally putting into play the next lower objective (October’s 2603.00 low) didn’t equate to ending the decline, let alone to reversing the trend back up. Friday’s close was in the process of retesting Thanksgiving’s prior low, for which there already is no bullish reason. Its eventual break and a retest of 2603.00 is inevitable, but the path or paths aren’t yet set. Isolating last night’s probe under Friday’s range would suggest another detour has entered the path down, at least for this morning if not also through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the likelier template is that the decline is awaiting the intraday session — more likely, just its appearance over the horizon — before resuming.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2625.25 would be likely to trigger the 2628.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2635.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2643.75 | 2644.00 |
| …would target | 2655.75 | 2656.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2627.75 | 2628.25 |
| …would target | 2617.25 | 2617.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s opening relief rally reversed down 86-1/2 points from 2710.00 to 2623.00 into the final hour. Its reaction up to 2652.00 stopped just short of 2656.00, but only fell back down to 2631.00 and closed above 2626.00. Only above 2626.00. The next lower objective at October’s 2603.00 low wasn’t put into play, but the retest of Thanksgiving’s low wasn’t rejected. No hold-short setup was triggered, but the pattern is still at risk of extending down sharply without delay.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 AM ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.