S&P
Post-open review… Wait problems.
Late bias signal test reinforces its resistance.
Recovering from the fresh overnight low at 2084.25 up to 2092.00 was extended to 2093.75 through the open”s first several minutes. Its reaction down to 2088.00 was recovered entirely, but no higher before dipping back to 2090.25.
That”s a lot of swings, but its relatively narrow range doesn”t generate a lot of centrifugal force. A fresh high barely probed 1 point above 2093.75 before reacting down back down to 2091.50. The 2095.50 bias-up signal wasn”t touched in time to invoke the grace period, let alone trigger.
Another swing managed to pierce the bias-up signal by 3 ticks. Exceeding it at 10:30 would have invalidated whatever was signaled at 10:15. But it was still being overlapped. This is a no-bias environment.
So, the 2095.50 bias-up signal should define the range”s upper-end. Probing above it should be retraced, probably down to at least 2094.00 where no-bias was signaled. So long as 2093.00 isn”t broken to reverse momentum down, rallying after the bias environment lapses would still be credible.
Downdraft averted? The earlier attack
Downdraft averted? The earlier attack on 2084 has recovered pre-open, back up to yesterday”s 2091 close. Extending higher post-open has little excuse to delay, other than a blip-down to 2091 or to attack 2088. Any lower, any later, for any longer, and the morning”s pattern becomes more likely to visit 2077 next. Details and other markets were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkhbsz
The First Trade… Backing-and-falling.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Rallying Monday depended on rallying quickly. Opening at 2098.00 just above Friday”s lows instead quickly collapsed to retest the 2093.00 overnight lows. Not only were overnight lows retested, but they were probed down to 2089.50. Recovering back up to 2098.00 was reversed even more substantially down to 2080.00. The afternoon”s consolidation formed a large triangle that broke higher to 2091.50. Potential down to 2077.00 was ignored, and the relevant 2084.00 level held on a closing basis.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sideways ranging got choppy into Europe”s opens. A dip to 2085.00 was recovered to 2093.50. That has been retraced gradually, and entirely, now probing fresh lows attacking 2084.00.
If, then…
Just putting into play yesterday”s 2088.00 bias-down target was likely also to visit 2084.00, and potentially 2077.00. Having probed 2084.00, closing back above it suggests that the decline is ending, and not just getting underway. Gapping open under 2084.00 could contradict its recovery, at least putting into play 2077.00. By the same token, confirming yesterday”s recovery by maintaining positive territory through any timing window would launch a complete retracement back up to prior highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2084.00 would be likely to trigger the 2086.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2088.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2102.25 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2107.75 | 2101.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2093.25 | 2086.50 |
| …would target | 2087.50 | 2080.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
2:30 bias environment exit was
2:30 bias environment exit was barely under the noon hour”s low. The final hour”s entry was recovering from piercing the bias environment”s low just moments earlier. It wasn”t enough for sellers to be gaining traction (and the 3:10-3:20 timing window didn”t break the tie).
The afternoon had formed a symmetrical triangle, and it soon exploited the opportunity. My expectation had been for a false break to 2086.50 that resolves down to 2077. Instead, the breakout surged to 2090. If extended even a little, Monday”s late surge could extend a lot — back to Monday morning”s 2098 high, and to new highs if 2099.25 were also recovered.
So, is 2077 off the table? Maybe. At least, its test isn”t necessary, having held a test of 2084. But 2077 would be the objective of an overnight drop, or of triggering bias-down Tuesday morning. And having trended up into Monday”s close, gapping down under Monday afternoon”s low would trigger a “session-long decline” unlikely to be satisfied with only 2077.
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