S&P
Pre-close view… Traction vs. Attraction.
Stalling on the way to the next lower objective.
Room for noise down to 2077.00 remains outstanding. It doesn”t require being tested, but its test is likelier as timing windows lapse without rejecting the decline.
Now the bias environment has been exited just under the noon hour”s range. The final hour”s entry had momentarily pierced a fresh low, but that didn”t qualify. Extending down to a fresh session low under 2080.00 through the 3:10-3:20 window would confirm that sellers gained traction.
Even if sellers don”t gain traction, fresh lows can be probed tomorrow. But it would be difficult to recover without also probing sharply lower.
Daily Spot… Bond bender.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s odd detour was retraced a little more deeply into Monday”s open, testing 1.0945 as support what had been the prior downleg”s bounce limit. Its break would target new lows, so rejecting it and recovering without delay may be the only path higher.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a $0.50 discount to Aug] Flat-to-lower ranging supported by 1088.00 sat out conspicuously from otherwise volatile stock and bond market action. Back above 1100.00-1105.00 would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday. Delaying its recovery much past noon Tuesday would instead start to develop a new downleg.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping once again back under 14.75 Friday extended lower Monday to test 14.50 support, which should hold to maintain the 14.75 buy signal”s validity.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Hardly any hesitation interrupted extending the rally to within 8 ticks of its next higher attraction at 158-08. The rally remains intact so long as 156-24 now holds as support.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Last week”s break under 148.25 targeting 144.25 was extending down already into Monday”s open, and extended down deeper intraday to test 145.10-145.15, which is the last support prior to the 144.25 target.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing overnight to attack the 2.77 buy signal was retraced Monday morning back down to Friday”s test of 2.70 support. Bouncing again from the filled gap was well within proximity to trigger 2.77 Tuesday if a deeper drop is to be avoided.
The ending game.
Massive, steep slide is fulfilling downside objectives.
The mid-morning bounce from 2089.50 wasn”t shallow. But it was a bias-down environment, whose 2088.00 target remained outstanding. All of which would have been ignored back above 2098.00.
So, the bounce touched 2098.00, but never triggered it. A sell signal did trigger back under 2094.75-2095.50.
That has been quite productive on the way to sharply lower lows. The slide steepened into a Running Correction that overlapped 2088.00. It steepened again to new lows at 2082.50 and 2080.00. Oversold RSIs at the low will require its retest.
This afternoon”s bias-down signal was renewed by not recovering 2088.00 at 1:20. Its renewed bias-down target is essentially met, but still has room for noise down to 2077.00.
Regardless of the low”s required retest, or the potential below down to 2077.00, back above 2086.50 could start to reverse momentum back up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 4 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Monday”s misses by ISM and Construction suggest the same for Tuesday”s post-open Factory Orders. Its only surprise can be strength — as in, strong data, which would make Fed tightening likelier. Tuesday”s other reports aren”t influential.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Unenthusiastic lack of enthusiasm.
Push lower runs out of sponsors, but isn”t reversed.
The open”s dive to 2091.25 was probed to 2089.50, after an interim bounce to 2097.50. The lower low not only recovered to the interim high, but also probed it up to 2098.00.
Like last night, price action is trading choppily and lower, but don”t blink or you”ll miss it.
And, also like last night, recovering fresh lows hasn”t equated to attracting fresh buyers.
So, this morning”s 2088.00 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below” which requires an eventual test.
The bounce has reacted down more than 6 points to 2091.75. Back above 2096.500 would start opening the door to probing positive territory this afternoon. Probing, and and probably trending. Otherwise, the attraction to 2088.00 remains intact, now likelier to be probed as low as 2077.00.