S&P
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2106.00 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2112.25 | 2105.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.75 | 2094.00 |
| …would target | 2094.75 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Not even a whiff of strength.
Early strength would have been credible. We”ll never know.
Opening at or under 2099.25 quickly extended down to the 2095.50 bias-down signal, and then spiked down under the overnight lows to 2091.25.
Reacting up to 2097.50 was retraced deeply enough to overlap the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, invoking the grace period. And 2095.50 broke lower through 10:30 to trigger late bias-down.
The 2088.00 bias-down target is in-play. Being a late signal makes the target a little more capable of holding its test, instead of extending down to 2084.00 and 2077.00.
Fresh lows are being probed down to 2089.50 while RSIs refuse to turn oversold. Expending so much selling pressure so quickly also improves the potential for the 2088.00 target”s test to recover. But the only credible buy signals are back above the bias-down signal, or else after fulfilling the bias-down target.
Still hovering at or under
Still hovering at or under unchanged as the open quickly approaches. The “ineffectual pessimism” makes initial post-open strength unusually vulnerable to extending higher quickly and sharply. I”m more interested in buying strength above 2099.25 / 2101.50 than weakness down to 2095.50. And I”ll be less interested in shorting weakness that isn”t making 2095.50 any likelier to actually break lower. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrsjkr
The First Trade… Sound and fury.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s range was choppy, but trending attempts in either direction failed to extend. Overnight action had twice probed above Wed-Thu 2104.25 highs, greeting Friday”s open from above 2108.00. That didn”t prevent sliding immediately back into the range to 2099.00. The noon hour”s probe above 2104.25 reversed down more deeply to attack 2095.00 before bouncing into the close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s “pattern” is the nearest thing to a random walk that I”ve seen on the screen in quite awhile. A flat open hovering under 2105.50 suddenly collapsed to attack Friday”s late 2095.00 low. Gradual choppiness pierced lower and lower to 2093.50 through Europe”s opens. A 9-point surge to 2102.50 was retraced almost as quickly back down to pierce 2093.50. Its retest didn”t react up as much, but price action has settled in around unchanged.
If, then…
Overnight selling pressure hasn”t been less overwhelming and more ongoing. Sellers haven”t thrown a lot at the market, but their throwing has been relentless. All of that effort hasn”t had much impact. If this sounds familiar, that”s because Friday”s choppy ranging was similarly ineffectual. It”s not too late for sellers to take greater control, but a bullish resolution becomes likelier as the open grows nearer without any rally efforts being absorbed .
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2099.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2093.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2101.50 would be likely to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal.
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2112.25 | 2105.50 |
| …would target | 2118.00 | 2111.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2102.25 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2094.75 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.