S&P
Daily Spot… Big moves into the weekend.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having fulfilled the 1.1075 sell signal”s 1.0900 minimum objective Thursday, the pattern became vulnerable to a corrective bounce. Understatement. Gapping up Friday morning extended sharply higher to touch the same 1.1120 resistance that had contained this week”s earlier bounce. Reacting down retraced more than 61.8% of the bounce to test 1.0970 — deep enough to trigger a new buy signal above 1.1075, while also suggesting extending any deeper would target new lows. I”ll describe this setup more thoroughly during the post-market Wrap.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another test of 1083.00 down to 1080.00 Friday was recovered quickly back above 1078.00, and then sharply higher to test 1100.00. The recovery should be obvious Monday, or else back under 1078.00 and 1083.00 would launch a new downleg .
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging through 14.75 Friday morning didn”t extend, and was actually retraced again, although 14.75 was still being tested as support to keep the pattern vulnerable to recovery.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying Thursday to within 1 tick of the 155-16 target was followed by gapping up Friday and extending higher to attack the next higher target of 156-24 to within 3 ticks. Now the rally”s momentum remains intact so long as 155-16 holds as support.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing, retesting and re-retesting the 49.25 buy signal without breaking higher was reversed down sharply Friday afternoon to probe Monday”s low under 47.00. That also triggered the 48.25 sell signal, now targeting 44.25 if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After ending Thursday at the 2.77-2.88 range”s lower-end, Friday extended down further to attack 2.70, where 2.77 would become a buy signal again.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 3 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two of Monday”s post-open reports have some track record of influencing price action, ISM more so than PMI. Personal Income and Outlays might have an unusual influence following Friday”s Employment Cost Index”s surprising weakness.
Jerome Powell Speaks
*Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Hanging in there.
Firming back toward the open”s gap.
There”s some degree of pessimism in having recovered so close to the 2108.25 opening print — 2-6 ticks — and the no-bias environment having lapsed, but still hovering just under that natural resistance.
There”s also some degree of optimism for having recovered back to this morning”s 2105.50 bias-up signal without yet fulfilling its offsetting test of the 2098.00 bias-down signal.
The bias-down signal was already attacked to within 3 ticks. But that was before putting its test into play at 10:15. It is still “unfinished business below,” but not capable of preventing further recovery. Especially not on a Friday.
It”s already difficult to trend on Fridays if the open isn”t, let alone the entire morning. A probe of fresh highs can”t be discounted before resolving down to 2098.00, if at all.
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2114.75 | 2108.00 |
| …would target | 2119.75 | 2113.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2106.00 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2100.00 | 2093.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Borrowing from post-open Peter.
Pre-open rally extends enough to attract sellers.
Another reminder that there can be too much of a good thing. Extending the rally required maintaining a gap up this morning, since yesterday afternoon”s buyers didn”t gain traction for their efforts. Surging after 8:30”s econ report had extended to fresh highs at 2109.25 just before the open. And that attracted more sellers than reinforcements.
Reacting several points down immediately at the open crossed back under 2108.00. Having touched 2108.00 post-open, not recovering it at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal.
That extended to within 3 ticks of the 2098.00 bias-down signal. But its test has been put into play, because a half-hour of choppy narrow ranging triggered no-bias, and the bias-up signal had held its test.
Or, has it?
The 2098.00 objective could be invalidated by recovering the 2105.50 bias-up signal at 10:30. In fact, a bounce tested it just minutes before, but still failed to recover it. No-bias could still be invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the 2108.50 post-open high so long as a fresh post-open low hasn”t yet printed.
I”ve already pointed out in the chaRTroom how the first half-hour”s pattern has already foreshadowed this morning would likely range choppily, or narrowly, or both. Not optimal for trading. And now 2105.50 is being retested, which at least offers an optimal short-entry. So long as it holds as resistance, 2098.00 is in-play.