S&P
Daily Spot… Relevant levels met all over the place.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday”s sell signal had extended down Wednesday afternoon, following an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC policy statement. Its ultimate reaction down extended much deeper Thursday, fulfilling the 1.0900 minimum objective for only a correction. The drop may extend to fresh lows under 1.0815-1.0835 so long as 1.0945 isn”t recovered.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1083.00 target was fulfilled overnight which allows a rally leg to begin. But, first, closing back above 1086.00-1087.00 Thursday was the minimum requirement to signal that sellers were done. A bounce attacking 1095.00 reacted down to attack 1086.00-1087.00, and now closing back above 1093.50 can launch a rally.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s probe above the 14.75 buy signal was repeated after the FOMC policy statement, but never extended higher. Dipping overnight was recovered back above 14.75 for another opportunity to extend higher. Closing above 14.90 would confirm a rally leg underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping deeper Wednesday night to 153-13 didn”t pevent recovering Thursday to fill the gap back to 155-08, coming within 1 tick of the bounce”s 155-16 target. Closing above it would put into play the next higher objective at 156-20. Meanwhile, back under 154-12 would launch a new downleg, or at least a correction of the recent rally.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another test of the 49.25 buy signal Thursday was also unable to break higher. Closing back under 48.25 signals the decline has resumed and is targeting 44.25.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming a little further overnight to the 2.77-2.88 range”s upper-end was already being retraced when Thursday”s EIA report triggered a deeper slide back down to its lower-end. Without breaking out either way, there is no new signal.
Agreeing to disagree.
noN-bias avoids triggering either signal.
Despite touching 2103.00coming out of the noon hour, this afternoon”s 2101.75 bias-up signal was overlapped within 3 minutes of 1:20. That invoked the grace period, but still overlapping 2101.75 at 1:30 triggered noN-bias.
noN-bias envirronments tends to behave like no-bias, ranging narrowly sideways, or back down to its 2095.50 bias-down signal. But it”s not inappropriate to simply continue rallying.
Having dipped back down to 2099.00, this instance doesn”t seem interested in rallying. That”s interesting, considering the recovery back above this morning”s bias-down parameters. Fulfilling the bias-down target so quickly might have avoided a deeper corrective drop. The alternative should resume the rally today, and time for that is getting scarce.
Exiting the bias environment back under 2096.00 would start to signal the recovery was a detour. And if the rally hasn”t resumed, then the decline should extend to new lows today.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 31 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two high-profile and influential reports are staggered post-open Friday. Note that Chicago PMI is released privately to institutional subscribers, so any obvious market reaction is credible, and likely to repeat or extend when released publicly. Meanwhile, subsequent reports are likely to generate a similar reaction.
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2108.75 | 2101.75 |
| …would target | 2114.25 | 2107.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2102.25 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2097.50 | 2090.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Another hunt for buyers.
Post-open bounce quickly resumes the pre-open slide.
The reaction down tried to hold 2096.00. But failing to hold 2094.00 made the 2095.50 bias-down signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Actually, the 2088.00 bias-down target was already tested at 10:15.
The 2088.00 bias-down target wasn”t broken, so the bias-down signal wasn”t renewed. But this being a bias-down environment, the bias-down signal should still define the range”s upper-end. In fact, a bounce just tested it by 1 point.
Oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the actual 2087.75 low require a retest. Just for opening the door to a downdraft instead of resuming the rally, Tuesday night”s 2084.25 low”s retest is likely, too. And its retest is likely also to visit 2077.00. The next upleg is likely to begin from retesting 2084.25, however deeply.
Maybe a lack of buyers wasn”t what prevented extending higher this morning. Perhaps the problem was too much selling pressure. Fulfilling the 2088.00 target so quickly does introduce that possibility. So would exiting the bias environment back above its 2095.50 bias-down signal. Follow-through would have to extend higher impatiently to be valid.