S&P
The pre-open reaction down extended
The pre-open reaction down extended back to the overnight low”s test of 2096, and then lower to 2094, and to 2092.50. Will the 2096 pullback limit”s test react back up above 2098 through 9:45 to signal that sellers are done and buyers are retaking control? Will 2094 not hold, making the 2095.50 bias-down signal likelier to trigger 30 minutes later? These questions and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmmkyhb
CORRECTION: The XP-friendly chaRTroom link
CORRECTION: The XP-friendly chaRTroom link published in The First Trade blog post should have been the following:
http://anymeeting.com/713-514-097
The First Trade… Hanging in there.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning”s no-bias rally had been required to retest its 2091.50 bias-up signal, despite that rally having extended higher to attack 2099.00. Optimism ahead of the afternoon”s FOMC news couldn”t be bothered with resolving that, and greeted the news from 2096.00. As quickly as its knee-jerk reaction blipped-up 6 points to 2102.00, it was reversed down to 2091.50, Having neutralized the attraction below, rallying into the final hour probed fresh highs testing 2104.00. But the final hour itself ranged sideways back down to 2099.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Room for a pullback was allowed down to 2096.00. It was tested twice after otherwise listless narrow ranging. An errant tick during its second test touched this morning”s 2095.50 bias-down signal, which reacted up into a rally up to fresh overnight highs at 2103.50. Without touching yesterday”s actual high, a reaction down has dipped to 2099.50.
If, then…
Having chipped away overnight at the 2096.00 pullback limit, attacking it through the open would be vulnerable to sliding through it — with its nearest objective being at least 12 points lower. Not touching it until after the open would more likely find its supportive power replenished, and capable of launching a new rally leg. Gapping up would also be credible for resuming the rally.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2098.00 after testing 2096.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2094.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2108.00 would be likely to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal.
The wake of Wednesday afternoon”s
The wake of Wednesday afternoon”s FOMC policy statement was at first spiky — up 6 points to 2102.25 down 11 points to 2091.25, and back up to test 2096. Then it was choppy, gradually working higher to 2104.25. But essentially it was hope-y, hovering at session highs through the final hour.
That hovering was above 2099.25, whose recovery makes a test of 2105.50 likely, too. There”s some degree of “ineffectual pessimism” in hovering for so long just under 2105.50 without either testing it or reacting down, and that”s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
So, at least a probe of fresh highs is likely, so long as 2096 holds as support. Gapping up Thursday above 2105.50 would make that probe more likely to extend to new highs. So long as 2096 holds as support. Back under 2096 starts putting into play a test of Tuesday night”s 2084.50 low. which could be probed down to 2077. Unless 2096 holds as support.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsyrty
Tonight”s links to monitor the chaRTroom are:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/780-671-510
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2112.50 | 2105.50 |
| …would target | 2119.00 | 2112.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2102.25 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2095.00 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.