S&P
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2110.75 | 2104.00 |
| …would target | 2117.75 | 2111.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.00 | 2093.25 |
| …would target | 2093.50 | 2086.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Thursday morning”s buying pressure was
Thursday morning”s buying pressure was fulfilled to within 3 ticks of the bias objective. That probed above Wednesday afternoon”s high, as had Wednesday night”s rally. Neither of which reversed the trend up.
Buyers tried again to gain traction Thursday afternoon, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high. But that was rendered moot when sellers tried gaining traction by entering the final hour under the noon hour”s low. The 3:10-3:20 window didn”t so much confirm, as it just didn”t disagree — the window didn”t trend down, but it held under all prior intraday lows.
So, rejecting the decline Friday will require gapping up, essentially above Thursday morning”s 2111 high. Any shallower strength, or immediate weakness, would be likelier to extend the decline. Just closing under 2099.25 has put into play 2077, and rejecting it through Friday”s open would likely trend sharply higher intraday.
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here”s the post market wrap until I”m able to compose the post market notes
Pre-close view… Short and shallow.
Another bounce plunges from its minimum objective.
This afternoon”s 2095.50 bias-down signal was touched during the noon hour. Holding it through 1:20 signaled no-bias, making it likely to serve as the bias environment”s lower-end.
That was part of a narrow 3-point 2095.25-2098.25 range overlapping the noon hour, which was not considered bullish. At least, not accumulative, so any bounce from it could only temporarily delay probing fresh lows down to 2093.25.
The potential for a false break higher was 2101.00, which a break higher pierced by 2 ticks. Then — repeating the resolution of this morning”s minimally sufficient bounce — Its reaction down accelerated along the way to 2091.50. But the past 20 minutes have been consolidating at the 2093.25 target.
Closing under 2099.25 would essentially put into play 2077.00. Recovering 2099.25 from here and from now would require a steep surge. Otherwise, there”s no requirement to extend down any deeper today, other than to neutralize the low”s oversold RSIs.
Daily Spot… Bonding.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s rejection of Tuesday”s probe above 1.0920 didn”t prevent rallying overnight to gap up Thursday above Tuesday”s 1.0977 high up to 1.0260 1.1026. There”s still room up to 1.0475 1.1047 without yet signaling the trend has reversed up.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially bouncing overnight set-up a test of 1100.00 resistance, which held intraday Thursday. Resuming the decline would still next target 1176.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trading flat-to-lower Thursday continued avoiding fresh lows, but the pattern is still likely to probe fresh lows before any rally effort would be credible.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The rally extended Thursday to fulfill the next higher attraction, filling the gap outstanding back up to 154-00. A fresh high close remains in-play and likely to test 154-20, especially so long as pullbacks hold 153-18 as support.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The decline extended Thursday to fulfill the 48.25 target. Closing back above 49.30 would start to signal momentum reversing up.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Thursday ahead the EIA report then blipped-up to 2.95 and collapsed back down to the 2.83 pullback limit, which needs to hold to maintain further upside potential.