S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 24 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Of Friday”s two econ reports, only PMI has a track record of influencing price action. Coming at 9:45, it might impact the opening 15 minutes of volatility reading.
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.75 | 2103.00 |
| …would target | 2116.00 | 2109.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2102.25 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2096.00 | 2089.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The search for buyers resumes.
Sellers exploiting the barely fulfilled bias parameter.
Holding tests of this morning”s 2104.25 bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2111.00 bias-up signal. It was attacked to within 3 ticks. That”s close enough with any target to prevent it from becoming “unfinished business above” if left outstanding.
And 2111.00 has been left outstanding. Its reaction down was probing under 2104.25 as the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. That has extended down to 2100.50.
Other unfinished business above will have to wait. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are oversold at the low, so a bounce would likely fail. It”s too late to trigger bias-down, or to require testing its 2099.25 target, but that”s the next lower attraction.
The next opportunity for reinstating the bullish scenario is to exit the noon hour back above any higher prior lows, like 2103.00, 2104.25 and 2105.50. Otherwise, not holding 2099.25 could extend down to 2077.00.
Post-open review… It’s on.
Attraction above is in-play.
If a dip had to extend so far as to touch 2105.50, then recovering it through 9:45 was needed to reinstate yesterday”s late rally to overnight highs. But just failing to hold 2107.25 all but required testing 2105.50, and the setup was triggered.
Next.
The only remaining bullish scenario would be to hold a test of the 2104.25 bias-down signal through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2111.00 bias-up signal. Three touches of 2104.25 held, triggering no-bias. And now the reaction up just touched 2109.50,
That”s positive territory, and it”s more evidence that yesterday afternoon”s buyers gained at least enough traction to absorb dips. But not trending higher throughout this morning would be greater evidence that any upside traction is lost.
Exiting the bias environment in rally mode would help to reinforce attractions to this week”s other unfinished business above, beginning at 2115.00 and extending to at least 2128.25.
The reaction down from testing
The reaction down from testing and retesting 2113.50 overnight has extended to test 2107. That”s about as deep as possible to make this dip credible for being any more than a temporary pullback. Recovering is still possible after dipping just a little deeper down to 2105.50. And then, only if already being recovered through 9:45. Any lower for any longer would undermine the recovery scenario — at least until probing under yesterday”s lows. Details and other markets coverage is in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcbkwv