S&P
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2650.75 | 2650.75 |
| …would target | 2658.00 | 2658.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2633.25 | 2633.50 |
| …would target | 2626.50 | 2626.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers staying around.
Volatile open chips away at fresh lows.
As late as the 2650.00 overnight low was being attacked to within 2 points, its eventual probe was likely. Immediately probing it by 1 point snapped back up 11 points almost as quickly. But that was retraced to fresh lows, whose reaction struggled for too long to attract reinforcements, and now has also fallen to fresh lows at 2637.75.
Prior lows at 2626.00 are the next lower attraction whose test can also provide some support for a bounce. As grudgingly as the open has finally resolved down, I’m not relying on much support there before extending down to at least attack October’s 2603.00 low.
Bouncing anyway — prior to 2626.00 or from below it — won’t be credible for reversing the trend up, no initially until forming some sort of basing or accumulative pattern.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… It’s still going.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s drop was already underway at the open’s gap down to 2782,00. It wasn’t yet destined to actually break lower, having room down to 2763.00. Even a perfect storm of negative headlines and Trump’s tariff tweet could have been absorbed normally. But Wednesday’s impending illiquidity exacerbated their effects. And as difficult as it is to generate sponsorship before a closed session, it’s difficult to stop sponsorship that gets generated. The break became a plunge to 2697.00 at the close, recorded as 3.2% on the day.
Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing to 2721.00 ahead of Wednesday morning’s close was followed by a 7-point gap down. Which spiked down 71 points to 2650.00. Its reaction soon tested 2690.00 and formed a symmetrical triangle that has gradually resolved down to attack the spike’s low at 2651.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering from Tuesday’s exacerbated slide would have been more bullish than first extending down to the room for noise at 2656.00. A recovery is still possible, but we’ll have to make that judgement this afternoon. Meanwhile, two days of illiquidity aren’t quite so impending as they will be tomorrow, but it’s not really a liquid environment if everyone is a seller. This open should be no less volatile than any from last week, so an early position may not be possible.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2726.00 probably also fails to recover the 2686.00 bias-down target, renewing the bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2706.00 | 2706.50 |
| …would target | 2716.75 | 2717.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2695.75 | 2695.75 |
| …would target | 2686.00 | 2686.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The answer to everyone’s question is 2763. That’s what caused Tuesday’s drop. At least, that’s what turned whatever had triggered it into something far more substantial.
That’s ES 2763.00, from Tuesday’s First Trade: “Lower lows have potential to 2763.00, but probably no lower before bouncing to keep alive the rally’s momentum. Any deeper would overlap Friday’s cash session ‘lower prior highs’ when optimism needs to remain intact.“
Monday’s gap up had already held its retest of Friday’s range — a 61.8% retracement between Friday’s close and Monday’s low, which had produced the gap. The pullback could be retested, but not Friday’s range without rejecting the gap’s intent. I had said that sponsorship to get there was unlikely ahead of Wednesday’s illiquidity, to which Trump said, “Hold my beer” and sent his “tariff man” tweet.
As difficult as it would be to generate sponsorship in a less liquid environment, it would be difficult to stop it. The consequence exacerbated the pullback. It could have been shallower, and it could still be deeper. Tuesday’s low held a 61.8% retracement of the post-Thanksgiving rally 2629.00 up to Sunday night’s 2814.00 Globex high. Recovering from here would be more bullish than first extending down to the room for noise at 2656.00, but possible.
One potentially bullish factor to having so many headlines of different stories accompanying the plunge is that a lot of scapegoats can be discounted at once. Brexit drama, Yield curve inversion, China trade truce doubts… Each was already suspicious, and not a total surprise. And the break they induced under 2763.00 was exacerbated by Wednesday’s illiquidity
Also retraced was 61.8% of Fed Chair Powell’s speech surge last Wednesday, represented at Tuesday’s close. “Lower prior highs” from that morning were also tested. Tuesday night’s price action only firmed, not yet enough to suggest any particular resolution. I’ll add comments in the chaRTroom overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.