S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s day of mourning has doubled-up its reports onto Thursday’s calendar. The day is very busy, with multiple simultaneous pre-open and post-open reports, which can make otherwise lower-profile items more influential than otherwise. But ADP is Thursday’s only reliably influential report, delayed from Wednesday, and also very relevant to fine-tuning our expectations for Friday’s reaction to its Employment Situation report.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:15 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Remaining under pressure through Wenesdayh’s break, Thursday’s open popped-up above the 1.1370 buy signal to test 1.1400 resistance up to the week’s 1.1415 highs.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing Tuesday’s 1247.00 high Thursday up to 1250.00 wasn’t maintained, so the rally’s extension has yet to be confirmed and remains vulnerable to reversing down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s failure to probe the 14.65 buy signal and instead dip to 14.45 support, doesn’t invalidate the opportunity to trigger the buy signal, but does start a time limit into the weekend.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The confirmed breakout requiring an eventual third higher close was on its way to being fulfilled Thursday. Holding pullbacks to 142-22 keeps alive the attraction to 144-04, whose recover would reinforce the rally’s momentum. Friday’s payrolls report is being greeted from a position of strength.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holding 52.15 as support Monday through Wednesday helps to continue forming a bottom, but it doesn’t prevent a dip like Thursday’s under 51.00. But this should now be enough backing-and-filling for the pattern to justify an optimistic launch of a rally leg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The struggle to recover the 4.44 buy signal and its 4.63 confirmation has become an attempt to hold the 3.32 pullback limit.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 5, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The national day of mourning for the late President George H.W Bush has affected Wednesday’s econ calendar. Price action was trading in anticipation of previously scheduled items — Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, Beige Book greeting an open session, etc. — so we should assume there will be some added degree of volatility. The unusual trading halt for futures has an impact, too (I believe the 9:30 close is correct, and will update if I learn otherwise).
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
ES Futures Halt
9:30 AM ET
Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
ES Futures Re-open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2772.50 | 2773.00 |
| …would target | 2779.75 | 2780.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2761.75 | 2762.25 |
| …would target | 2754.50 | 2755.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding lower.
REMINDER: I’M UNAVAILABLE BY NOON. PM BIAS PARAMETERS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE, BUT NO OTHER UPDATES UNTIL THIS EVENING…
Rallying off of the 2767.25 overnight low gained 20 points at the pre-open high. It was retested post-open, but never exceeded to signal momentum reversing up. Reversing back down triggered this morning’s 2780.25 bias-down signal and extended to 2772.00, but was still overlapping the 2775.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.
It’s still a bias-down environment. Which fresh lows at 2769.50 after 10:15 are confirming.
It’s still a bias-down environment. So, the decline can still extend to what would have essentially been its renewed bias-down target at 2763.00. But the lower target isn’t in-play, and the entire session’s lower volume undermines any other usual reliability.
Meanwhile, RSIs aren’t deteriorating, which is also undermining the decline’s reliability. Selling pressure isn’t increasing, so back above 2778.00 — and recovering the 2780.25 bias-down signal when the bias environment begins lapsing — would point higher through the afternoon.