S&P
REMINDER: Join us for Saturday
REMINDER: Join us for Saturday Review at 9:30am ET to discuss the bigger picture”s expected price action character and targets, We”ll also review your stock chart analysis requests:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/684-991-174
xp UNfriendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2128.50 | 2121.75 |
| …would target | 2034.00 | 2127.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2120.50 | 2113.75 |
| …would target | 2115.50 | 2108.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The bullish WedEX came through,
The bullish WedEX came through, preventing even a retest of the morning”s low. The last two hours trended up 6 points to 2120. That met the 2119.75 objective put into play by touching the morning”s 2112.75 bias-down signal.
Having been influential Friday afternoon, WedEX is likely to influence Monday morning, too. And having been only mildly influential — relative to the intraday range — WedEX”s influence Monday morning could be very aggressive.
Meanwhile, the setup trending relentlessly to new highs remains intact, with interesting pattern points being visited simultaneously by the Euro, Gold and the 30-year Treasury. Join us for Saturday Review at 9:30am ET to discuss the bigger picture”s expected price action character and targets:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/684-991-174
xp UNfriendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Meanwhile, here”s Friday”s post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxwksb
Pre-close view…Making lemonade.
Retesting the post-open high.
The opening 15 minutes” downtrend may have been correct to reflect a lack of buyers. But not probing a relevant support also correctly reflected that sellers were lacking, too.
And not extending down left an environment that could respond to the bullish WedEX. So, the a 4-piont surge greeted the bias environment starting to lapse.
This being expiration, trending through the close is likely, if trending is already underway. Trending up can more difficult than down, but less so when so many opportunities to trend down have not extended.
Daily Spot… Extensions.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.0855 target was tested Friday, while also filling the new gap back to Thursday”s open. Back above 1.0915-1.0920 would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping open at Wed/Thu lows didn”t prevent probing lower, and testing 1138.00. But none of that created any requirement or impetus to recover, and the drop extended to fresh lows testing 1130.00. A bounce to 1163.00 would be the likely objective of any rally begun Monday, probably be gapping up above 1138.00. That would leave unfinished business below to fill the gap back down to Friday”s close. Rallying without leaving any unfinished business must still close above 1151.00 to signal momentum actually reversing up.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Friday barely extended lower intraday, spending the balance of the session ranging narrowly around Thursday”s ~14.85 low.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s confirmed breakout above 150-24, which had held a test of its 150-08 pullback limit, extended higher Friday to test 152-00. While this fulfills the minimum requirement for an eventual third higher close, there is potential up to 154-00 or to fresh highs above 154-20 so long as pullbacks now hold 151-14 . Closing back under 150-08 would target new lows under 147-14.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s break under 52.00 continued dropping Friday, probing under the prior week”s 50.55-50.60 low, and targeting a test of fresh lows at 48.00.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s dull ranging touched 2.83 but didn”t react up sharply from it. Any further weakness Monday should be rejected very quickly and aggressively to avoid launching a deeper correction, while any initial strength would be credible for extending higher intraday.