S&P
Pushing on a string.
Opening dip has yet to extend or to recover.
If trending down throughout the opening 15 minutes hasn”t set a bearish tone for the day, then at least it”s inhibiting a recovery. That opening setup was suspicious already for not probing under any relevant support, and not yet extending only reinforces that suspicion.
But while sellers don”t seem resolved to push lower, buyers seem to be stuck in traffic and yet to arrive.
A bullish WedEX need not avoid fresh session lows retesting this morning”s 2112.75 low. A bullish WedEX need only force a quick and substantial recovery from fresh lows. Or, simply start trending up through 2116.00-2117.00 altogether, targeting fresh highs above 2120.00-2121.00.
Regardless of these likely influences, don”t forget that today is expiration. Fridays are already vulnerable to unique “Friday factors” caused by the fast-approaching illiquidity. Trending is difficult to start, and difficult to stop once started.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 20 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports are scheduled for Monday.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2125.00 | 2118.25 |
| …would target | 2131.00 | 2124.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2118.50 | 2111.75 |
| …would target | 2114.00 | 2107.25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Avoiding inversion.
Trending down through the open has set the tone.
The late pre-open fresh highs at 2119.25 formed a Double Top that began reversing down into the open. And out of it. Reversals from Double Tops are often temporary, but the post-open influence of this pre-open setup required that reversal to be underway already by 9:45. It wasn”t.
In fact, the opening 15 minutes of volatility trended down throughout. This setup on expiration tends to set the session”s tone. And it extended down to touch the 2112.75 bias-down signal.
So, we”re on watch for this afternoon”s WedEX to invert bearish. Trending down through the bias environment”s exit would confirm. But…
The door remains open to recovering and rallying. The first 15 minutes did not probe any relevant support, and neither did its follow-through. Ample opportunity to trigger bias-down was ignored. RSIs diverged positively at the low. And the no-bias signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2119.75 bias-up signal.
Back above 2116.00 would start signaling the open”s selling pressure was absorbed, and that fresh highs were in-play. Anything shallower would keep alive potential for inverting WedEX”s afternoon influence.
Probing yesterday”s high ahead of
Probing yesterday”s high ahead of this morning”s open still can”t be taken for granted as marginalizing sellers. This is expiration, so extending higher intraday depends greatly on sellers not taking control of the open. Even the most bullish resolution would still allow an interim dip this morning. Avoiding that dip should keep the rally intact into and out of the weekend. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfzvkp