S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 1 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Wednesday is busy, mostly because of Fed chair Yellen”s House portion of the semi-annual two-day Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Customarily, the embargo on her opening remarks is lifted at 10:00am. Previously, she has thrown the market a curve by releasing her remarks hours earlier at 8:30am. Regardless, the early stage of her testimony can effect price action. The pre-open PPI is also high-profile and influential to price action. Two other Fed speakers on Wednesday will keep things volatile, along with the afternoon”s Beige Book release.
Esther George Speaks — hawk
Tue 8:15 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
**Janet Yellen Speaks — dove
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks — dove
12:25 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks — dove
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.75 | 2102.50 |
| …would target | 2115.00 | 2108.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2102.25 | 2095.25 |
| …would target | 2096.50 | 2089.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
On the verge of confirmation.
Morning-long rally is helping to protect yesterday”s breakout.
The open”s 2093.50 buy signal”s minimum objective at 2097.00 wasn”t quickly exceeded. Its 2099.00 area target wasn”t exceeded immediately, either.
As much time has been spent consolidating 1 tick under the 2101.75 bias-up target. But it is no less influential, and exceeding it would be no less relevant.
Of course, exceeding the 2101.75 bias-up target into the noon hour would be more relevant than delaying it.
Regardless, a bias environment has trended up to be exited above prior highs. These combined conditions usually marginalize sellers, and often extend the trend. Marginalized sellers don”t preclude there being a dip, only that the dip is likely temporary and recovered. And extending the trend often must wait for that temporary dip.
A pullback could be limited to 2097.50 or 2096.25 before recovering to resume the rally. Extending higher, first, would have potential to 2105.50.
Post-open review… Barely skipping a beat.
Surging to fresh highs, and its targets.
The open”s surge through its 2094.50 buy signal extended higher to its minimum 2097.00 target. A consolidation there has resolved up to probe the next higher target of 2099.00.
Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are diverging negatively simultaneously.
Meanwhile, this is a late bias-up environment. The 2096.50 bias-up signal was still being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window. Triggering late makes the 2101.75 bias-up target more of a guideline than a requirement.
So long as pullbacks hold any test of 2097.00 as support, the trend remains up. Otherwise, we”ll soon be discussing the potential for a pivot reversal session.
Pre-open action has slipped a
Pre-open action has slipped a little further than the earlier overnight lows. After recovering to yesterday”s 2094.75 high, a slide in reaction to Retail Sales has touched 2090.50. Gapping down is now likely. Rallying to new highs remains possible, which either would confirm yesterday”s breakout, or else form a bearish pivot reversal. Extending down remains possible, and the parameters and consequences for each were discussed during the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyxtrc