S&P
The First Trade… Waiting for the first to blink.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s gap up to 2084.75 was well above the morning”s bias-up target, and it still extended 6-1/2 points higher. A pullback into the noon hour”s 2086.00 low wasn”t recovered enough to trigger the afternoon”s bias-up signal. But when the environment began lapsing, having avoided multiple opportunities to reverse momentum down, the balance of the session trended up to 2094.75.
Overnight action”s new info…
Relatively narrow ranging did manage to touch a fresh high at 2095.25 before dipping down to 2091.50 into Europe”s opens.. Price has since firmed back to yesterday”s 2094.75 high.
If, then…
Yesterday”s surge recovered relevant levels too late to reflect the rally gaining traction. Extending higher overnight would have given the rally credibility. Trending up above relevant levels through the open could still reflect strong-handed buyers being attracted. Having hovered optimistically throughout the night, extending higher would be more credible if appearing much sooner, rather than later. And until extending higher, the pattern meanwhile is vulnerable to at least a corrective dip with potential down to 2077.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2086.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2089.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2099.25 would be likely to trigger the 2096.50 bias-up signal.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.50 | 2096.50 |
| …would target | 2107.75 | 2101.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.00 | 2089.00 |
| …would target | 2089.50 | 2082.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The minimum objective of resuming
The minimum objective of resuming the rally Monday afternoon was 2093, and it was tested before the last half-hour. Price crept higher, while dips continued overlapping 2093. The next higher objective is 2096.50, which now is Tuesday morning”s bias-up signal. Triggering it in the morning would make a positive close no likelier than would initially dipping and then recovering. But a higher close is needed to confirm Monday”s breakout, to put into play new highs, and to prevent even a corrective dip — let alone reversing back down to new lows. That and more was discussed during the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzchww
Overnight links to the chaRTroom are here:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/756-650-478
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Pre-close view… Breakout of a breakout.
Intraday consolidation is ending.
The afternoon bias environment”s 2089.00 exit was at the bias environment”s upper-end, so it doesn”t qualify as gaining traction. But the final hour”s 2092.00 entry was above the bias environment”s high, which does.
Extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would confirm buyers gained traction for today”s efforts. Their reward would be control of tomorrow morning”s bias environment.
The rally effort would be more credible if already rallying out of the bias environment, instead of waiting until minutes before the final hour”s entry. Not trending up through 3:10-3:20 would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply. Currently, that trigger is under 2089.50.
Absent a big reversal down, today”s session will be the breakout that we discussed during this weekend”s Saturday Review. Confirming it with a second consecutive higher close would put into play new highs. Meanwhile, probing higher Tuesday morning could reverse down intraday to avoid confirmation, while also reversing the trend back down. We”ll discuss the possible paths from here, and their consequences, during today”s post-market Wrap.
Daily Spot… Shake on it!
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night”s reaction to the Greece deal tried holding 1.1120 support but eventually slid through it Monday, testing 1.1000 support, and still targeting 1.0935.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week”s bounces had held the 1163.00 buy signal. Monday”s slide tested 1150.00 to within $3 of prior lows before bouncing back to 1158.50 resistance. Closing back above 1158.50 does suggest the dips are weak-handed, making any probe above 1163.00 that much likelier to extend higher intraday.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s weak-handed attempt to extend above 15.35-15.45 resistance was retraced Monday back toward 15.25, but still recovered back up to 15.45. That action may have neutralized Friday”s premature rally effort, so that early strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Sunday night was reversed to fresh lows before Monday”s open as a Greece deal was reached. Firming intraday tried to avoid another lower close, which would allow a lower buy signal than 150-24.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness managed to hold within the recent range to avoid extending the decline. But recovering 54.30 is still needed to prevent the narrow range from becoming a continuation pattern.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to test 2.83 resistance and probing it temporarily to 2.88 was no more bullish than Friday”s rally that closed at 2.77 resistance. Closing above either is needed to signal trending, especially if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close the following day.