S&P
Enthusiasm gap.
Open”s surge hasn”t resumed.
The 2091.25 high reacted back down during the morning”s bias environment to 2086.50. That had been the original buy signal, if not confirmation that the overnight pullback to 2080.75 would recover to probe fresh highs.
Price action hasn”t changed much since then. Slightly lower lows during the noon hour down to 2086.00 have avoided extending down. In fact, price action since the open”s surge has avoided taking 1-minute RSI either overbought or oversold. New sponsorship isn”t being attracted to this range, making a breakout difficult.
This afternoon being a no-bias environment, trending down has room to test the 2084.00 bias-down signal just as noise in the range. Back above 2089.00 would start to signal instead the potential for testing the afternoon”s 2091.50 bias-up signal.
Trending that is obvious ahead of 2:30 would be credible for extending into the close. But there is no requirement to trend, at all. So, be careful with position size and reaction limits.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 14 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday”s calendar is certainly busier than Monday, but not much more relevant. Retail Sales is highlighted only because it will be discussed on financial media, but it impacts price action only if it surprises.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2099.50 | 2092.50 |
| …would target | 2105.00 | 2098.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2091.00 | 2084.00 |
| …would target | 2084.75 | 2077.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Legs.
Overnight recovery finds post-open sponsorship.
The 2084.75 open extended higher without delay. Ranging around the 2087.50 overnight high formed a Symmetrical Triangle that has broken higher to 2091.25.
This gets into the target area around 2092.00 that I defined during Saturday Review. A reaction down becomes likely when combined with the Triangle — a pattern that tends often to break falsely initially before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.
Patience is NOT a virtue at this stage. Refueling sellers by trapping shorts shouldn”t be necessary. This should be the stage where trapped shorts are squeezed to help fuel the rally. But reacting down could target the 2077.00 area just as a corrective dip that still recovers.
Extending deeper down to 2073.00 still could launch another upleg, but much less reliably. The most bullish scenario is to simply extend higher this morning to exit the bias environment above the 2092.00 area.
Trading flat-to-lower off the 2087.50
Trading flat-to-lower off the 2087.50 overnight high is trying to recover from dipping to 2080.75. That”s well above the 2078.50 bias-up target, which could attract price down at least to test it as support, unless the open quickly breaks through 2086.75. More detail and other market coverage was discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwpwpj