S&P
The First Trade… Reversal of misfortune.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s post-close reversal had trended up overnight to gap up Friday at Wednesday”s 2068.00 opening high. Reacting down this time held 2060.00 and resumed trending through the day, albeit shallowly. The rally gained traction from a late-afternoon attack on 2075.00, reacting down to test the open”s 2068.00 high.
Overnight action”s new info…
Weekend developments surrounding Greece were quite different from Thursday”s post-close catalyst. Sunday night”s gap down touched 2052.00, retracing 61.8% of the rally from Wednesday”s low to Thursday”s high. I noted in the chaRTroom that could have been much worse. Recovering back to unchanged was corrected before surging past Friday”s highs to 2079.00 through Europe”s opens. That has extended to attack 2088.00, as much into positive territory as Sunday night”s gap down was negative.
If, then…
Friday”s rally had gained traction, so trending up this morning all but requires extending a gap up through the open. And the indicated gap up would break above the two-week trading range highs where previous gaps up went to die. A reaction down could test the range”s “lower prior highs” down to the 2073.00 area before suggesting another recovery effort has failed.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2081.50 would suggest the 2078.50 bias-up target will remain recovered through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2068.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2073.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
This is why they call
This is why they call it a trading range… Weekend developments have gone quite contrary to the favorable cycle that began after Thursday”s close. Friday”s gains are in jeopardy. I”ll comment in the chaRTroom later this evening, but you can watch Sunday night”s open in real-time at either link below (note that the XP-Friendly availability may not be immediate):
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/473-929-055
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/11/15) …Fallen and can’t get up.
This weekend”s Saturday Review described how to recognize a durable or false breakout from the recent two-week old range, and the consequences of either. Below is the chat transcript, and a chronological list of the stock requests we reviewed. The recording”s links are:
MP4 version || Non-mp4 version
AAPL, TSO, VLO, NVLX, GWPH, GOOGL, NKE, CSCO, Crude Oil (CL), Copper (HG)
07/11/2015 09:32:59 Mark : gm
07/11/2015 09:33:20 G: echo
07/11/2015 09:56:15 Mark Glezer: is the likeliest scenario now to probe
higher Mon to 2090-2095 and close under Fri high?
07/11/2015 10:00:41 Mark Glezer: first break out would likely be false
whatever direction or not necessarily?
07/11/2015 10:00:53 Mark Glezer: k
07/11/2015 10:01:03 David B: we have greece,china,and earnings going on.
how does one know which one the market is focusing on or does it matter
in the bigger picture?
07/11/2015 10:02:18 Mark Glezer: there is expectation that earnings will
likely be bad
07/11/2015 10:02:54 David B: so we”ll know with second second close what
the focus is?
07/11/2015 10:03:06 David B: to new highs
07/11/2015 10:05:15 Mark Glezer: do u expect a real break out of this
range – not a false one – to occur with a big move, perhaps doubling the
size of the range – 50*2 = 100 pts?
07/11/2015 10:05:26 David B: they were saying china having an impact on
aapl
07/11/2015 10:05:50 David B: could have an impact on aapl
07/11/2015 10:08:38 Mark Glezer: if not earnings or geo-political event,
what do u think will be a driving force to move to a new range in ES?
07/11/2015 10:13:07 Mark Glezer: yes
07/11/2015 10:13:19 Mark Glezer: right
07/11/2015 10:15:50 David B: TSO,VLO
07/11/2015 10:15:51 Mark Glezer: last Q – above
07/11/2015 10:15:55 David B: GOOGL
07/11/2015 10:17:39 David B: it seems like the nasdaq is underperforming
so if we got a second higher close would this mean we would need the
speculative stocks to lead this higher?
07/11/2015 10:22:07 David B: would you categorize the drop of china
differently than 87 in that is was more in line with your crash scenario
you have discussed before?
07/11/2015 10:24:09 Rod David: m r: Another question about the braoder
market – Since the pattern which preceded the current range was a Double
Failed Breakout of the Ascending Triangle, does that undermine the
ability for the market to return to and/or exceed those highs?
07/11/2015 10:24:43 David B: yes
07/11/2015 10:27:21 David B: also have a question above my china crash
question
07/11/2015 10:28:33 David B: nasdaw underperforming
07/11/2015 10:28:44 David B: yes
07/11/2015 10:30:10 Mark Glezer: AAPL is somewhat deceptive in that
sense since it is also a part of DOW now
07/11/2015 10:33:21 Mark Glezer: in a sense of reflecting NDX
underperformance
07/11/2015 10:42:02 Mark Glezer: my comment on AAPL pls
07/11/2015 10:43:57 Mark Glezer: right
07/11/2015 10:44:16 Mark Glezer: both NDX & DOW
07/11/2015 10:44:55 Mark Glezer: doesn”t indicate outperformance of one
& underperformance of the other
07/11/2015 10:45:09 Mark Glezer: AAPL that is
07/11/2015 10:57:00 Mark Glezer: my comment on AAPL was that since it is
now a part of both NDX & DOW it cannot be used to indicate outperformnce
of the one & underperformance of the other, it can only be reflection of
the move when NDX & DOW move in the same direction
07/11/2015 10:58:00 Mark Glezer: agree
07/11/2015 10:58:30 Mark Glezer: k
07/11/2015 10:58:49 Mark Glezer: thx much
07/11/2015 10:59:26 David B: thanks
Join us this morning at
Join us this morning at 9:30am ET for “bigger picture” discussion at this weekend”s Saturday Review. We”ll also do instant stock chart analyses per your request.
Log-in here:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/712-527-475
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2080.50 | 2073.50 |
| …would target | 2085.50 | 2078.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2071.25 | 2064.25 |
| …would target | 2065.00 | 2058.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.