S&P
Post-open review… Backing-and-filling.
Open”s slide gained no traction.
The open”s blip-up touched 2069.75 resistance and reacted back down to the 2065.50 preliminary indication. Still overlapping it at 9:45 prevented identifying whether new buying sponsorship was being attracted. That didn”t prevent probing lower since then to to 2059.50.
But it did suggest that probing lower would be the temporary. At least one early element suggests that, too — the first reaction down was retraced by only 38.2% before triggering the 2065.50 sell signal. Reversing down from a 61.8% bounce would have required strong-handed sellers.
Indications of impatient sellers means that buyers are patient. At least, relatively patient. In fact,the reaction up from 2059.50 is fulfilling expectations for being sudden, steep and substantial, already testing 2067.50.
Exiting the bias environment above 2068.00 could extend higher this afternoon to test 2072.50 and 2076.00. But that”s not yet required. Little is, until there”s more visibility on acceptance of the latest Greece bailout proposal,
Higher highs ahead of the
Higher highs ahead of the open have touched 2069.25. That”s reacting down now, so the opening 15 minutes of volatility is not assured to touch yesterday”s 2068 high. But if the opening sequence DOES touch 2068, then not exceeding it at 9:45 would start to suggest new buying sponsorship isn”t being attracted. Otherwise, the next highier attraction is 2072.50-2076.
More is in this morning”s pre-market Tour recording:
To view this recording: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhjzxm
The First Trade… Fool me once, or second time’s a charm?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s gap up tested 2068.00, above Wednesday”s highs and almost 30 points above Wednesday”s close. The balance of the session trended down as the potential session-long rally setup inverted. A last-minute 10-point plunge to 2039.50 nearly filled the gap back to Wednesday”s close. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.
Overnight action”s new info…
Globex was greeted by favorable developments from Greece, essentially a proposal that seemed to have a chance. The open gapped up 4 points and spiked up another 10 points, and eventually firmed to attack 2062.00. The balance of the night has trended higher, and just touched 2068.50 momentarily.
If, then…
Yesterday”s was well within proximity to Tuesday”s 2035.00 low, which requires a retest. An overnight setup would have made that vulnerable to recovering before the open. That would have greeted the post-close news from a stronger position. Not that its immediate and overnight reactions would have been bigger. But is it only from being oversold, or is it actually durable past this morning? As we saw yesterday, maintaining the reaction above relevant levels through relevant timing windows will signal whether the reaction is extending, or melting away. This being a Friday, the open and the bias windows will be very consequential. As with all single-minded overnight trending, the opening 15 minutes of volatility can answer whether or not new sponsorship has been attracted.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2065.75 would start to suggest the overnight rally had attracted intraday sponsorship. Exiting the open under 2059.25 would suggest not, and back under 2057.25 would start to signal that sellers were attracted.
SPECIAL OVERNIGHT UPDATE; You”ll never
SPECIAL OVERNIGHT UPDATE;
You”ll never guess what followed that last-minute 10-point plunge into Thursday”s close. Greece made a proposal that seems to have moved much closer to offers previously made to her. Plunging from 2049.50 to 2039.50 through Thursday”s close was nothing, compared to Globex gapping up to 2045. And that has extended to test 2063. Any higher would target 2070 so long as 2059 holds as support.
So far, the price action indicates an inside day. Filling the gap back to yesterday”s close would become unfinished business below. Europe”s opens are four hours away, and the fallout could be dramatic if the enthusiasm were to be tempered. Otherwise, gapping up enough could produce the session-long rally that Thursday”s open had tried to be.
Once again, here are the overnight chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/012-937-391
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2055.25 | 2048.00 |
| …would target | 2060.75 | 2053.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2044.00 | 2037.00 |
| …would target | 2038.50 | 2031.25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.