S&P
Monday morning”s bounce left unfinished
Monday morning”s bounce left unfinished business above at 2072.25, attacked to within 2 ticks. The reaction down left no unfinished business above, holding a test and retest of the 2051.25 bias-down target, without even triggering bias-down. The final hour”s entry was so near the bias environment”s low that it easily could have gained traction, but bounced instead.
I noted other unexploited setups previously on the blog and during the post-market Wrap. Each has the same meaning, that sellers weren”t strong-handed.
That doesn”t prevent another dip. Closing at or above 2061.50 at least suggests a dip would be recovered instead of extending down. Closing above 2066-2067 would have been optimal , and extending higher after the close to 2067.25 still doesn”t prevent an temporary dip. But a dip should be just that, temporary. If a decline does get underway, then testing 2040.25 can be pivotal going forward.
More detail is in the post-market Wrap recording, here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptxvsy
[Check this post”s comments section after 6pm ET for the overnight chaRTroom links]
Pre-close view… Last chance to trap shorts.
Deeper afternoon dip is still holding support. Barely.
The 2051.25 bias-down target was touched, despite being a noN-bias environment that avoided triggering bias-down. Back above 2054.25-2056.00 would reversing momentum back up to test 2062.00 if not also 2066.00-2067.00.
Above or below 2066.00-2067.00 is still predictive. Closing above it would help the afternoon”s recovery to extend higher overnight, and probably much higher tomorrow. Closing under it would enable today”s bearishness to persist, making an overnight bounce likely to fail.
That”s the close. Meanwhile, the bias environment was exited under the noon hour”s low. Entering the final hour under the bias environment”s 2051.25 low would give the decline traction for extending down tomorrow morning. A retest of Sunday night”s lows would be targeted, with no requirement to hold them or to recover.
Daily Spot… Greece ripples effect.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night”s gap down only attacked the prior Sunday”s 1.0981 opening gap before recovering back into positive territory at 1.1108. Its retracement stopped optimistically short of even touching the overnight low, but its reaction up was resisted by last week”s closes. Fresh lows remain likely so long as the 1.1120 bounce limit holds.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night”s $6 gap up to 1174.00 had reacted down to 1162.00 before Monday”s open. That was recovered to attack 1174.00. It”s not optimal for a bottom, but back above 1175.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sideways ranging continued avoiding whatever influences have been keeping gold under pressure. Closing at 15.75 which the past two weeks have repeatedly overlapped still keeps the decline from extending.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night”s flight-to-safety triggered a probe above last week”s 151-15 high up to 151-26. Its reaction down to 150-13 was recovered to a fresh post-open high. Back under 150-06 would signal momentum reversing down, eventually targeting fresh lows under 147-14.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows Sunday night tested support at 53.25 by more than a dime. And that was exceeded after the close down under 53.00. The decline”s momentum remains intact so long as bounces now hold 53.85 as resistance.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Filling the outstanding gap above Thursday and closing back under 2.83 prevented buyers from gaining traction. Gapping down to 2.77 support Monday doesn”t help sellers to gain traction, although the session simply ranged choppily sideways. There is no compelling setup in this pattern.
Not taking “yes” for an answer.
Positive territory”s attraction becomes resistance.
Probing above the 2062.50 10:15 high extended without little hesitation to 2070.50. But the balance of the bias environment dipped back down to 2061.00. The noon hour has ranged sideways up to 2065.00.
Thursday and Friday”s closes are essentially 2066.00-2067.00. Exiting the bias environment under them indicated that the morning”s buyers didn”t gain traction for their effort.
That doesn”t prevent retesting the morning”s high. Overbought RSIs there require it eventually. And this morning”s 2072.25 objective remains outstanding.
But beginning the next upleg from under 2066.00-2067.00 would make a fresh high vulnerable to reversing back down. A reversal down could be avoided by triggering this afternoon”s 2067.00 bias-up signal, or by delaying a break higher until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30.
Regardless of any unfinished business above, nothing prevents extending the dip without any fresh high.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 7 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Last week”s Employment Situation report is a filter through which Tuesday”s JOLTS will be viewed. It”s the day”s only influential report, in a week that becomes a lot higher-profile for its next three days.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET