S&P
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.50 | 2067.00 |
| …would target | 2079.75 | 2072.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2064.25 | 2056.75 |
| …would target | 1058.75 | 2051.25 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Stop me if you’ve heard this one.
Complete post-open recovery of Sunday night”s plunge.
The overnight recovery up to 2059.25 was retraced pre-open down to 2048.75. Bouncing through the open reacted down initially to 2049.25, but recovered 2053.25 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to make the 2058.25 bias-down signal unlikely to trigger.
In fact, 2062.50 was being tested at 10:15, triggering no-bias. Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters — including the 2050.50 bias-down target — put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters, 2066.00 and 2072.25.
That can be invalidated. It”s too late to trigger, but back under the 2058.25 bias-down signal at 10:30 would negate whatever was signaled by recovering it through 10:15. That door remains open since the pre-open and post-open dips did stop optimistically short of their prior support. Exceeding the 2062.50 high made before 10:15 would undermine sellers.
The overnight recovery peaked at
The overnight recovery peaked at 24 points, reacting back down 9-1/2 points from 2058.25. An opening print above last week”s 2046.75-2047.50 lows would be a rally”s best chance, more so after recovering from a post open probe under those lows, and especially after converting that brief post-open dip into a fresh post-open high. All by 9:45… Last week”s lows need not break lower quickly to make overnight lows any likelier to be retested. Expending too much energy through the open avoiding last week”s lows, without also extending higher, would be ineffectual optimism — and potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvyrhk
The First Trade… Deja vu, all over again
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s reaction to the pre-open Employment report surged to 2079.00, but failed to trigger bias-up. An offsetting test of the 2062.25 bias-down signal was fulfilled at the noon hour”s low. The close had recovered 2070.50.
Overnight action”s new info…
Globex holiday trading through Friday”s noon hour dipped to 2063.25, putting into play 2058.00. Small potatoes. Sunday night”s open reacted to Greece”s no-vote by gapping down to 2034.25, off 34-35 points from Thursday”s close. Almost duplicating last Sunday night”s gap down, price action since then has trended up relentlessly. The plunge has been cut by two-thirds to test 2059.00 — where last Sunday night”s open had gapped down.
If, then…
Will this Sunday night”s plunge recovery continue duplicating last Sunday night”s reaction by resolving back down after Monday”s open? There is no requirement to retest last night”s open, which was not complex, so it is not a “new Globex trend extreme” that otherwise would require intraday retest. And having tested the next lower objective to 2040.25, there is no other “unfinished business below.” Not currently. Gapping open within last week”s range above 2046.75 can avoid creating a gap wanting to be filled from above. Recovering positive territory through the open could extend higher through the morning. But not already rallying out of the open would start making an intraday test of 2040.25 likely.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2062.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2058.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2066.00 would be likely to trigger the bias-up signal at 10:15, which is also 2066.00. Exiting the open at 9:45 back under 2053.25 would be likely to trigger the 2058.25 bias-down signal. And exiting the open under 2047.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering the 2050.50 bias-down target at 10:15.
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.00 | 2066.00 |
| …would target | 2080.25 | 2072.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2066.25 | 2058.25 |
| …would target | 2058.50 | 2050.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.