S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 26 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Friday”s pre-open Consumer Sentiment number has a good track record of getting a reaction from price action. Being hawkish, the post-open Fed speaker probably won”t surprise the market, but she”s highlighted anyway.
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks – hawk
12:45 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2116.75 | 2108.50 |
| …would target | 2121.75 | 2113.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2109.75 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2104.25 | 2096.00 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Doubt.
And it”s a big doubt, whether buyers can be productive this morning.
The open”s test of the 2107.50 preliminary signal reacted down under 2104.25 to trigger its sell signal. The 2097.50 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs became oversold.
Not exceeding 2105.75 through 10:30 would trigger late no-bias, putting into play a test of the 2097.50 bias-down signal. This would satisfy the required eventual retest of oversold RSIs at the low.
Reacting up again touched the 2105.75 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Recovering it through 10:30 would trigger late bias-up, putting into play its 2110.50 bias-up target.
Triggering late bias-up could be productive, but probably not durable. Just trending above the bias-up signal this morning in a no-bias environment wouldn”t be much different — the opportunity to reject yesterday”s bearish setup has passed, and any bounces are likely only refueling sellers for a deeper drop through tomorrow morning.
The overnight surge that attacked
The overnight surge that attacked 2113.50 had fallen to test 2105.75 as support before trying to rally again. That attempt had no bullish reason to delay extending higher, but it did delay, and it fell. Now the open is being greeted by a bounce off of 2104. The promise of gapping up above Mon-Tue lows, is now struggling to at least gap up above yesterday afternoon”s highs, which would form a “session-long rally” setup. Not maintaining a gap up above yesterday afternoon”s high and 2105.75 resistance would be as bearish as it could have been bullish.
Here”s more detail in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbswwf
The First Trade… Focusing on more Greece talks.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s first hour had held the critical 2113.50 level, but a late surge from there only stretched the rubber band so it could snap back down. Hard. A sell signal triggered under 2112.75 and every bounce limit held as every timing window trended down on the way to 2101.50. Oversold RSIs during the afternoon bias environment waited for a bounce to stretch the rubber band again, snapping back down through the close to test 2099.25 support.
Overnight action”s new info…
The Globex open immediately began rallying into a 2102.00-2104.50 range while awaiting Europe”s opens. That resumed the rally, which eventually surged for its last 5-6 points up to 2112.75. Its reaction down to 2105.00 tried to resume the rally on a very favorable Greece headline. That stopped short of a fresh high when a customarily contradictory headline followed it. The headlines have only gotten worse, but so far the range is holding.
If, then…
Actually, the attempt to resume rallying stopped pessimistically short of touching the 2112.75 high. And that high had stopped pessimistically short of touching the critical 2113.50 level. Monday and Tuesday”s lows at or above 2112.00 were touched, so relevant resistance has been touched. If a rally can”t exploit having chipped away at resistance, the resolution could be that much more bearish. And since yesterday”s break under Monday and Tuesday”s lows signaled a drop underway through Friday morning, gapping up back above the prior lows could reject that setup and put into play new highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2107.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2105.75 bias-up signal at the 10:15 bias timing window 30 minutes later. Exiting the open under 2102.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2113.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2110.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.