S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 23 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday”s pre-open Durable Goods report is high-profile with a track record for influencing price action. The post-open reports are less influential. But there is a tendency for the pre-open sentiment to repeat post-open, and the two housing sector reports are opportunities for that.
**Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
*New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2129.25 | 2121.00 |
| …would target | 2136.25 | 2128.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2122.50 | 2114.50 |
| …would target | 2116.25 | 2108.00 |
| Signal status: waiting LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Entrenched.
Doubly-renewed bias-up on a session-long rally.
The opening 15 minutes maintained its gap up above Friday afternoon”s 2109.00 prior high, forming a “session-long rally” setup. Also maintained was the gap up above Friday”s entire pessimistic session. Rejecting its late plunge, its intraday downtrend, and its gap down is much more powerful.
In fact, the morning has trended up, probing last week”s high up to 2121.25. Each timing window of a session-long rally should probe its prior timing window high, with one exception. That”s usually the noon hour, which will soon come within view.
The 2121.00 area is credible for a near-term peak. So is the timing, and RSIs aren”t overbought. Back under 2118.50 would start to signal a corrective dip targeting 2114.50 and potentially 2111.75.
But until the 2120.00 pullback limit is violated, the trend remains up and targeting new highs above 2125.00.
Reacting down nearly 7 points
Reacting down nearly 7 points from the 2118 overnight high reacted up once to 2115 before failing. Now a second low attacking 2110 has reacted up again, this time to test 2117. Gapping up above Friday afternoon”s 2109 high seems easy, so forming a “session-long rally” setup seems assured.
All but assured. Optimally, a post-open dip would hold 2114.50 before resuming the recovery through overnight highs Trending down through the open under 2112.25 would start to undermine the recovery”s potential. Here”s detail in the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkzkss
The First Trade… No deal is good deal?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s expiration session trended down through its opening 15 minutes, setting the session”s tone. Its gap open down to the 2111.00 area, broke lower into the noon hour, and trended down through the close. Wednesday”s air pocket above 2100.00 to above 2105.00 was retraced. A late sell signal triggered under 2103.50 and extended quickly to the afternoon”s lowest calculable target at 2097.25. The late bullish WedEX either inverted or invalidated.
Overnight action”s new info…
Despite no Greece deal over the weekend, Sunday night”s open gapped back up to 2103.50. Consolidating narrowly held Friday afternoon”s 2108.75 prior high. Rallying resumed before Europe”s opens, and extended to 2118.00. RSIs diverged negatively there and now a pullback is testing 2111.75 by a couple of ticks, taking RSIs oversold.
If, then…
The corrective bounce limit back to Thursday”s high is 2114.75-2116.25. Recovering it post-open would target a retest Thursday”s prior high. That happens to be only 3 points higher at 2119.25 in this pattern, and its room for noise isn”t much higher. But its recovery would imply much more than that, resuming last week”s rally targeting new highs. Having tested 2114.75-2116.25, reversing down from here would be credible for launching a new downleg triggered back under 2106.00 and targeting a retest last week”s lows under 2063.00. Two potential bullish setups this morning are the “session-long rally” which rejects the prior afternoon”s downtrending by gapping up above the prior afternoon”s high, and a more powerful rejection of Friday”s entire session by gapping up above its session highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2114.50 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2111.75 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2109.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal.