S&P
I think I can, I think I can, I think I can.
Still a tough climb beyond recovering last night”s open.
Was the retest of Tuesday”s range completed? This morning”s 2062.75 low pierced it by 1 tick. That”s basis Sep. Meanwhile, Jun and cash never touched it.
I tend to give buyers a benefit of the doubt, having bounced 15 points since then. The recovery blew through the 2071.00 open, on the way up to 2078.00, testing last night”s 2076.50 open.
Hovering there has narrowed its range into the noon hour, forming an Ascending Triangle. Accumulative, continuing, or not, this is still well into negative territory. Much more work is needed to begin fulfilling the setup discussed during Saturday Review — probing deeply negative territory and recovering well into positive territory.
Triggering this afternoon”s 2080.00 bias-up signal would be a big step in fulfilling that setup. Exiting the noon hour back in positive territory above 2085.00 would be a bigger step. Meanwhile, back under 2072.25 is vulnerable to resuming the decline, at least to retest this morning”s low.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 16 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Will Tuesday”s housing sector data confirm last week”s stronger reports?
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2089.00 | 2080.00 |
| …would target | 2095.25 | 2086.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.50 | 2069.75 |
| …would target | 2072.75 | 2063.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Air pocket change.
Opening plunge puts the burden of proof on buyers.
Fresh lows greeted the open at 2070.25, filling the gap back to last Tuesday”s cash session close. Having bounced already from Tuesday”s 2072.25 futures gap, there was no bullish reason to touch the lower gap.
That”s why just touching 2070.25 post-open could discover an air pocket… which it did.
Actually, isolating the touch of 2070.25to the opening 15 minutes of volatility could have been absorbed. But the open”s 7-point plunge was certainly an air pocket.
1-minute RSI diverged positively on a lower-low at 2062.75, launching a bounce to attack 2070.25 (now being probed). It”s not required, but extending the bounce could touch 2074.00 without assuring an actual recovery underway.
Meanwhile, back under 2065.50 would signal the decline had resumed, next targeting 2059.50.
The reaction to last night”s
The reaction to last night”s gap down had ranged flat-to-higher until Europe”s opens at 2081.25. Trending down since then has now retraced back to the open”s 2072 low, and lower, attacking an air pocket that isn”t much lower. The best and perhaps only hope of avoiding it would be to exit the first 15 minutes of volatility in rally mode. Details were discussed during the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvprtj