S&P
The First Trade… More or less.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s 10-point gap down extended another 10 points into late-morning at 2082.00. That was the session low. A bounce was retraced almost entirely into the afternoon, while several sell signals stopped optimistically short of touching the low. The balance of the session ranged sideways.
Overnight action”s new info…
Greece headlines triggered a 9-point gap down Sunday night. Friday”s outstanding 2074.00 target was probed by 2 points during choppy sideways ranging back up to 2081.50.
If, then…
Last night”s lows tested Tuesday”s “lower prior highs.” This is a possible low that we discussed during Saturday Review. Below it is the gap back to Tuesday”s 2072.25 futures close which was also touched overnight. Having bounced there, just touching Tuesday”s 2070.00 cash session close could find an air pocket down to 2059.50. Any one of these levels is capable of launching a reversal back into positive territory — already recovering at the open could rally sharply into Wednesday morning. But not rejecting the drop by noon would be unlikely to avoid a much deeper decline underway.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2072.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering this morning”s 2074.00 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open above 2084.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.
It”s Greece. Again. Talks ended
It”s Greece. Again. Talks ended this weekend at an(other) impasse. S&P futures gapped down 8 points at tonight”s Globex open. This immediately fulfilled the 2074 target of Friday afternoon”s three sell signals that were inhibited by “ineffectual optimism.” It tests the natural support of “lower prior highs” I described during yesterday”s Saturday Review. And it teases the setup which still suggests recovering into positive territory through Monday”s open, from here or from 10 points lower. Even without recovering, this initial response promises an exciting and opportunistic session tomorrow.
Here”s the NON xp-compatible link to monitor overnight action. (Let me know if you need xp-friendly access):
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/13/15)… It ain’t over.
This weekend”s Saturday Review recording is unavailable in mp4, so let me know whether you encounter any difficulty viewing it in this format.
The first 30-35 minutes discuss the broader market”s bigger picture. Why did the decline into last week”s low stop where it did? Can it resume? What does last week”s rally tell us to expect? And much more… This will be an exciting week, with Yellen”s quarterly Q&A (usually our most profitable session of the quarter) and Friday”s quadruple Witch expiration.
The requested stock chart analyses, in order, are: BABA, AAPL, TWTR, ORCL, FB, JBL, ADBE.
Some of the comments/questions that attendees posted:
lower is not contemplated yet?
two consective closes over 2113 we are heading to new highs?
relative behavior of major indexes – anything chaanged?
seems like NDX was underperforming for a few days with DOW outperforming
expiration on fri
do u think 140 AAPL may coincide with the final new high in ES ?
earnings on wed is it greeting from strength? orcl
coincidentally 140 AAPL – 2140 ES
FB has to get to 100 by 80/100 law
ah need to climb above 90 first
On orcl, does the high in Dec make the price action from march through
today accumulation rather than distribution?
Me and the gang, we”re
Me and the gang, we”re sitting around talking, and Kimmy says, “Let”s review the bigger picture.” We all pretty much agree that sounds like a good idea, so Lawrence says, “When?” “Saturday at 9:30,” I say, and upon noticing their quizzical looks, I add, “Morning — Saturday morning.” They all nod in understanding, but only momentarily before those quizzical looks return. “ET,” I add. “Saturday Review, 9:30am ET. We”ll analyze stock requests, too.” Then Paul mentions something about sleeping in, which gets everyone”s attention, so he quickly acts like he was only kidding. “See you in 45 minutes,” Paul says. “Yep, see you there,” we say.
Saturday Review 9:30am ET:
XP-Friendly — https://www.anymeeting.com/757-778-189
not xp-friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
[Post-market Wrap recording linked at
[Post-market Wrap recording linked at the bottom…]
Friday”s session was under pressure throughout the day. Throughout Thursday night, for that matter. In fact, downtrending began at Thursday”s 2106.75 opening peak, and extended through Friday morning”s 2082 low. Friday afternoon remained under pressure, but didn”t probe lower lows.
That”s basically the problem with yet being a bottom. Friday afternoon”s lows stopped optimistically short of touching the morning”s low, let alone probing under it. Recovering would be premature, without first testing 2080.50, if not also 2074. And not recovering from either would target a probe under last week”s 2061-2063 lows.
A lot of selling pressure was expended before Friday”s open, but that didn”t prevent extending down. Now much more selling pressure has been expended, without reversing the trend down. If this has been sponsored by weak hands, then its reaction should be substantial — preferably, gapping up Monday after probing fresh lows overnight.
Join us in the morning for this weekend”s Saturday Review. We”ll discuss the two paths down, one of which would first visit new highs. We”ll also discuss the consequences of either, and the potential for simply launching a new rally leg. Then we”ll review any stock chart on demand. Follow this link in the morning:
Saturday Review:
XP-Friendly — https://www.anymeeting.com/757-778-189
not xp-friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Meanwhile, here”s Friday”s post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybwtys