S&P
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2100.50 | 2091.75 |
| …would target | 2107.50 | 2099.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2089.00 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2082.75 | 2074.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Friday Factor fluff?
Remaining under pressure, but not extending.
This afternoon”s no-bias environment began lapsing at the noon hour”s 2084.25 low. Then fresh afternoon lows were probed down to 2082.25 just several minutes past 2:30. Any earlier would have been relevant.
The final hour was entered under the bias environment low, but the 3:10-3:20 timing window didn”t confirm. Sellers gained no traction for their effort.
RSIs did diverge positively at the 2082.25 low, producing a bounce to 2087.00. But the bounce isn”t credible for extending higher, since the 2082.25 lows stopped optimistically short of touching this morning”s low, and that”s potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Extending down to 2080.50 before the close, or not, this afternoon”s selling pressure could have been a lot worse into the weekend. Instead, the morning”s drop wasn”t exceeded before entering the position-squaring window at 3:37. So, sellers are still considered weak-handed.
Daily Spot… Bonds bouncing, or beginning a bigger buy?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday within Thursday”s range bounced back above Thursday”s highs to test the 1.1285 level whose recovery would trigger a fresh highs underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Early weakness Friday attacked Thurdsay”s 1175.00 low and bounced back into the range. Momentum still hasn”t signaled its reversal down, targeting 1158.50. But the bounce has clearly lost its traction.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting Thursday”s 15.77 low Friday essentially held, but wasn”t clearly rejected. The pattern is vulnerable to extending, while another bounce into the 16.15-16.35 range first would suggest that fresh lows will recover.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bounce extended higher Friday to 151-22 before dipping at least 1 point into the afternoon. Closing above 151-16 would now seal a bottom, confirmed above 151-26. Back under 149-22 would target a retest of the 148-18 area.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Friday and probing under the 60.30 pullback limit didn”t extend down intraday. But extending higher should be obvious soon after Monday”s open, if not already Sunday night, or else a deeper pullback would become much likelier.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Gapping down Friday to the upper-end of 2.74-2.77 support bounced back up to Wednesday”s 2.82 lows before reversing down to the lower-end of 2.74-2.77 support. Closing any lower would undermine the rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 15 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday”s pre-open Fed survey is high-profile, but it has no track record of influencing price action. The post-open housing sector report can be influential if it is surprising.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Trapped shorts, or else trap door.
Trying to recover the post-open drop.
The opening drop extended lower despite not renewing the bias-down signal under its 2089.25 bias-down target by 10:15. Support was tested at 2082.00, which was the shallower speculative retracement of Wednesday”s opening sentiment. Signs of impatient sellers had made a bounce there likely.
Its 9-point bounce probed above the 2089.25 bias-down target. Exiting the bias environment above it would have confirmed this morning”s sellers are weak-handed.
That”s not happening.
Entering the noon hour under this morning”s 2089.25 bias-down target doesn”t confirm this morning”s selling pressure is weak-handed. It leaves the door open to extending the drop this afternoon. That would target the gap back to Tuesday”s 2072.00 close, and potentially another 10 points lower.
Instead of extending down, the noon hour could still probe fresh post-open highs up to this morning”s 2095.75 bias-down signal. That would still allow the afternoon to rally, and to probe above yesterday”s 2106.75 high. But the burden of proof is on buyers.