S&P
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.50 | 2092.50 |
| …would target | 2107.25 | 2098.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2089.50 | 2080.75 |
| …would target | 2081.50 | 2072.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… But, wait, there’s more.
Overnight drop resumes, extends through the open.
S&Ps were trading in lockstep with Europe. Firming to 2100.00 into Europe”s firm opens was rejected to fresh lows at 2095.00 when Europe”s opens stumbled. Their stumbles were recovered, so S&Ps recovered, too, to 2101.00.
But that recovery melted away, to fresh lows testing 2092.00. The open”s 2-point bounce stopped short of triggering a 2094.25 buy signal, and extended down to test 2087.00. Its 6-point reaction up has resolved down 7 points to 2083.50.
The 2089.25 bias-down target wasn”t yet broken by 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. This is still a bias-down environment that need not recover from extending down. But delaying the extension down until after 10:15 is often weak-handed sponsorship, and recovered.
Back above 2088.25 would start to signal the extension”s sponsorship is weak-handed, and that it has been absorbed to reverse back up. Otherwise, the next lower attraction is Wednesday”s 2079.50 opening print.
S&Ps tied recovery hopes to
S&Ps tied recovery hopes to the wrong horse. Europe”s opening dips had recovered into positive territory, taking S&Ps above levels where Europe had opened. Then Europe”s recoveries fizzled, and S&Ps reversed down to fresh lows, too. Clearly, there is one story moving markets, and it”s moving all of them similarly. A lot of surprises can suddenly appear in such a narrow range of vision. Would a favorable Greece headline be such a surprise? No further Greece headline might be favorable enough to avoid triggering bias-down. Here”s the recording of the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfpcftv
P.S. Don”t forget about tomorrow”s Saturday Review at 9:30am ET… details to follow.
The First Trade… Good to the last drift.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s opening surge to 2106.75 had extended the pre-open firming form a narrow 5-point 2095.00-2100.00 overnight range. That narrow range had begun late Wednesday morning, after spiking up on anti-Grexit headlines. Another headline countered the 24-hour old bullish news, driving price back under 2100.00. The balance of the session ranged sideways narrowly again.
Overnight action”s new info…
A gradual drift to fresh overnight lows greeted Europe”s opens by firming to 2100.00, but resuming the drift touched 2095.00. Reacting up again pierced 2101.00, where Europe”s opens were greeted.
If, then…
A series of lower highs and lower lows since yesterday”s opening high has dropped 12 points. The slope has been shallow, so a lot of selling pressure has been expended without probing a prior low. This is not a buy signal, but it is a basis for expecting a buy signal to be very productive, very quickly. Similarly, nothing prevents extending down further — but a sell signal is less likely to be productive since so much selling pressure was expended already. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2094.25 would be likely to trigger the 2095.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2102.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2106.50 would be likely to trigger the 2105.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2113.25 | 2105.00 |
| …would target | 2120.00 | 2111.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2104.00 | 2095.75 |
| …would target | 2097.50 | 2089.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.