S&P
Mid-day Update… Sitting pretty.
Holding recovery to fresh post-open highs.
This morning’s dip to at least test the 2727.75 bias-down target ultimately probed it 4-1/2 points lower.
Nevertheless, its test was isolated — the 10:15 2736.00 print and the 10:30 2739.25 print were recovered as the bias environment lapsed from 11:30-noon.
Its buyers were rewarded by probing fresh session highs up to 2742.00. And now the market awaits the 2:00 FOMC Minutes.
The minimum likely reward is to probe above yesterday’s 2745.00 high. Hesitation can be considered as pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, and could contribute to probing well above yesterday’s high. Having said that, an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down has room to retest 2727.75 before suggesting a deeper pullback may be underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Fed speaker is close enough to the open to be an influence. The post-open PMI tends to influence price action when released privately to its institutional subscribers, and that price reaction tends to extend or repeat when released publicly several minutes later.
John Williams Speaks
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2740.50 | 2741.00 |
| …would target | 2746.75 | 2747.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2730.25 | 2730.75 |
| …would target | 2724.75 | 2725.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Is it, or isn’t it?
Bias-down avoided at the very last second.
The open’s 5-point was relatively narrow within 2734.00-2739.00, especially compared to the two prior sessions. 
But it was overlapping the 2734.75 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period, which lapsed at 2729.25…
Or, did it lapse at 2740.00? The 11-point difference is the spike up triggered by a Trump China trade tweet. Bias already wasn’t clean, but the tweet prevented a “clean” late bias-down.
Being a tweet reaction, we anticipated its retracement. We also discounted its influence. We also noted that a trade already underway hadn’t violated its bounce limit’s first 3-4 minutes. And now fresh lows are testing this morning’s 2727.75 bias-down target.
The trade already underway was targeting a couple of ticks lower, which is also fulfilled — down to 2725.25. RSIs are avoiding oversold territory, which is NOT a buy signal, but which also allows a buy signal to be very productive.
The nearest buy signal currently is back above 2731.25, preferably triggered this morning to exit the bias environment in rally mode. Continuing lower would still have potential down to 2707.00 (i.e. 2701.50-2708.50), if only to absorb the tweet’s reverberations.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Only a pullback?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up soon stalled at 2698.00 instead of extending higher, let alone almost literally exploding higher. Which made the morning likely back-and-fill. It also made the open a position of strength likely to attract an eventual recovery. Backing-and-filling was testing 2684.00 when the first hour ended. Firming into noon greeted the embargo being lifted on Fed Chair Powell’s remarks. The reaction literally exploded higher to 2728.00 during the noon hour, trending up to 2745.00 during the final hour. The day began by testing ‘higher prior lows” from last Tuesday, and ended by attacking 1-1/2 week old highs.
Overnight action’s new info…
Shallow downtrending had dipped back to yesterday afternoon’s prior high down to 2734.50 before midnight. The downtrending has persisted down to 2728.75 — still just probing under yesterday afternoon’s prior high, but now also retracing 61.8% of yesterday afternoon’s last dip.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Confidence that a bottom is forming isn’t nearly is high since yesterday’s explosion was delayed past the open. But the burden of proof was on sellers so long as yesterday’s open had gapped up to allow room for a morning dip, and the burden of proof remains on sellers despite the overnight dip. Last night’s relentless dip is vulnerable to reversing up as the overnight crowd covers, unless the open fails to recover from under a relevant support — relevant support has so far held at the 2728.75 61.8% retracement of yesterday afternoon’s last dip. There’s still room for noise below it on a retest, but its failure would reverse down intraday and potentially target “lower prior highs” at 2707.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2726.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2727.75 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2731.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2734.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2740.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.