S&P
As you know from my
As you know from my prior post, I”m unavailable during the last hour today. Unfortunately, I”ve just learned that the chaRTroom will be unavailable, too. THERE WILL BE NO CHARTS BROADCAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. I”m very sorry for the inconvenience this may cause.
Daily Spot… Gold and bonds extended.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh highs Tuesday night at 1.1388 were only attacked Wednesday morning, but last week”s highs were clearly pierced, in position to fulfill the eventual third higher close that remains outstandingg.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding the 1175.00 bounce limit Tuesday didn”t prevent gapping up Wednesday to the next higher bounce limit at 1191.70. This one is more critical to hold, as closing any higher would take the 1158.50 objective out of range. Back under 1185.30 would signal that the bounce had ended.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying only enough Wednesday morning to pierce the lower-end of the 16.15-16.35 target range. That was retraced to unchanged around 15.95, still leaving no new signal.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the next lower objective at 148-08/148-10 to within 1 tick Tuesday was only one reason why a bottom had not formed. Wednesday”s gap under it tested the next lower support at 147-18. Back above 148-11 would target 149-08 without yet reversing the trend up. The 30-year auction is on Thursday, and the 10-year went off well on Wednesday.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s gap up above Friday”s high had invalidated the 58.75 sell signal. Extending higher overnight gapped up sharply Wednesday to test 61.80. Its reaction tested 60.80 as support, whose recovery signals 63.15 in-play, so long as pullbacks then hold 60.30.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight to 2.92 gapped up Wednesday, dipped a dime to probe negative territory, then recovered back toward the highs. Ending the day with a third higher close fulfills the minimum requirement and leaves no unfinished business above. But greeting Thursday”s EIA report after three consecutive higher closes is a position of strength. Leaving that minimum requirement outstanding would have been a slightly better position of strength, having that attraction above.
Pre-close view… Hovering high.
Greece news reaction hasn”t extended, and hasn”t reversed.
PROGRAMMING NOTE:
I am unavailable during today”s final hour. We”ll do Market Wrap early at 2:55pm ET. Its recording link will be sent tonight.
Since spiking up this morning, price has only ranged narrowly sideways. This afternoon”s 2106.50 bias-up signal was touched several times but never pierced. Its last reaction dipped to test 2103.00.
That was recovered to test the 2106.50 bias-up signal, during the no-bias environment — and the no-bias signal is intended to define the no-bias environment”s upper-end until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30. But just coming to within 10-15 minutes of 2:30 now allows trending to start at any time.
By the way, the afternoon”s bias environment pierced the noon hour”s high by a couple of ticks. The noon hour”s high had not pierced the morning”s bias environment high. If today is still behaving like a “session-long rally,” then the final hour should trend to new session highs.
Regardless of how strong it is, Wednesday”s rally is just one day. A second consecutive higher close is needed for confirmation that new highs are back in-play. Closing today above 2111.75 and 2117.00 would be increasingly likely to extend higher Thursday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 11 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s calendar is busy, and two of its three pre-open reports are high-profile. But the only item with a reliable track record for influencing price action is the lunch hour”s 30-year auction. Volatility may be inhibited before it, if not pessimistic. A successful auction would likely trigger a relief rally.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
A deal?
Renewed target is probed even higher.
The 2098.50 / 2099.75 renewed bias-up targets were met, and held. Price was hovering there when favorable Greece news triggered a spike up to 2108.00. That happened
to fulfill the 2104.25 unfinished business left outstanding last week.
Overbought RSIs at the 2108.00 high require its retest. But the balance off the session is vulnerable to a dip or to flat-to-lower ranging — none of which is a signal that momentum is reversing down.
It”s tempting to view today as a “session-long rally” for having exploited its gap up above yesterday afternoon”s high. But yesterday”s close didn”t comply with the setup. Still, we”re gong to monitor the timing windows for one that doesn”t probe the prior timing window”s high.
– probing higher through each until the final timing window would make that last one vulnerable to trending back down
– not probing higher during the noon hour or afternoon timing windows would be vulnerable to trend higher into the close
So, an afternoon downleg would be possible, but not currently indicated.