S&P
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.50 | 2106.50 |
| …would target | 2112.75 | 2111.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2099.50 | 2098.50 |
| …would target | 2094.50 | 2093.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Renewed.
Bias-up target met, and exceeded.
After yesterday”s buyers had failed to gain traction for their efforts, rallying this morning required essentially gapping up and extending. Exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility above 2088.25 would be likely to trigger the 2086.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
In fact, the open”s gap up extended quickly through 2088.25. The 2093.25 bias-up target was met to within 1 tick at 9:45.
And the bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Although not required to be met, 2098.50 and 2099.75 are in-play.
Surviving the open without reversing down in this pattern does suggest that sellers are marginalized for the day. This is regardless of extending so high and so quickly.
Overbought RSIs at the high make its retest likely. Timing makes fresh highs this morning likely to extend higher. Dipping is possible, if not also likely. But there is room down to 2091.00 before suggesting the dip is part of a reversal down.
2085 was touched by the
2085 was touched by the pre-open pullback from the 2089.25 overnight high. That still avoided yesterday”s high by 1 tick. This is a lot of optimism, and a rally needs optimism, but not quickly attracting more optimists would mean the stretched rubber band can snap back that much harder. Buyers get a benefit of the doubt, but also less latitude in their pullback. Details were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvpjsr
The First Trade… Green.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s pre-open drop to 2068.75 wasn”t retested intraday, but neither was it rejected. The morning”s bias-down target was satisfied to within 3 ticks, without oversold RSIs below needing a retest. The dips were reversed into positive territory attacking 2083.00 and 2085.00 — never above relevant resistance when it could reverse the trend back up, but the close essentially held positive territory. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts, but neither did sellers.
Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging up to Tuesday”s high and back down to unchanged firmed again at Europe”s opens. That has extended to fresh highs testing 2089.00.
If, then…
Tuesday”s close was overlapping the 2078.75 lower-end of the decline”s target area. Monday”s close, too. Why did Monday”s find a hold-short compelling, but not Tuesday”s? Where Monday”s close had not maintained a reaction up from the target area, Tuesday”s close recovered from probes under it. Extending down is still possible, especially if gapping up this morning isn”t maintained through the open. Extending a gap up is the only credible start to a remaining in positive territory all day, if not also to trending back up.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.25 would likely also trigger the 2086.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2082.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2087.50 | 2086.50 |
| …would target | 2094.00 | 2093.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2079.50 | 2078.75 |
| …would target | 2073.75 | 2072.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.