S&P
Tuesday morning”s recovery probed positive
Tuesday morning”s recovery probed positive territory but never gained traction. That keeps alive the vulnerability to resuming the decline. Regardless, trending Wednesday morning should begin by gapping, or else more sideways ranging would be likely. Here”s more detail in the post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvshcmh
Pre-close view… Skipped a beat.
Retracement stops short of becoming recovery.
This morning”s retracement of the post-open dive wasn”t exceeded until the noon hour. That later attack on 2085.00 would have been bullish an hour earlier coming out of the bias environment. But the noon hour was less conciliatory, and that has served as the session peak.
The bias environment started lapsing within the noon hour;s range, surging only minutes later to 2084.00. That surge didn”t extend, and the final hour;s entry was back at the bias environment”s 2080.00 low. Neijther trending setup had triggered, so any further trending attempt was likely to fail.
A sell signal that triggered under 2080.50 has extended to within 1 tick of its 2076.00 objective. This can be the pullback”s low, anyway. Back above 2079.75 would signal momentum reversing up — new session highs would be possible, but not required.
Meanwhile, just closing in positive territory doesn”t equate to ending the decline. But it would suggest that rallying from here will begin by gapping up. Almost any weaker open Wednesday would be credible for resuming the decline.
Daily Spot… Energies hit the gas pedal.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having retraced Friday”s plunge entirely Monday, Tuesday was more free to back-and-fill before extending higher. The morning”s dip was recovered to attack 1.1300 as had Monday”s session.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having held the test of 1175.00 resistance Monday, higher highs overnight tested 1183.50 resistance. Tuesday”s intraday action slid back to 1175.00 support.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s session remained under pressure despite Gold”s strength. Bouncing back into the decline”s 16.15-16.35 target area is still possible.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Tuesday attacked 148-10 support to within 1 tick before bouncing back to the decline”s original 149-08 target.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Despite gapping down Monday back under the 58.75 sell signal, thereby rejecting Friday”s late surge that had recovered it, higher highs overnight extended Tuesday above Friday”s late high to test 60.30 resistance. This is not at all in-line with reinstating the sell signal. Closing above 60.80 would start to signal a bigger rally underway.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Triggering the 2.67 buy signal Monday didn”t delay extending to the 2.83 target Tuesday morning. The second consecutive higher close confirmed the breakout, so that an eventual third higher close is now in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 10 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Wednesday”s econ reports aren”t influential to price action. But the noon hour”s 10-year note auction is greeting a market that has been in decline recently. That will likely inhibit price action before the news, if not undermine rallying. A successful auction would then likely trigger a relief rally.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Not enough, not yet.
Recovering the open”s slide is less than half the battle.
The 2070.25 bias-down target was never actually touched. So, a probe under overnight lows down to 2067.50 was never in-play. Having attacked 2070.25 to within 3 ticks prevented it from becoming “unfinished business below” when left outstanding as the bias environment lapsed.
Speaking of which. The bias environment lapsed around 2080.00-2082.00 — more at the lower-end than upper. And that”s not optimal for trapping the open”s sellers, forcing them to help fuel further recovery.
Back above 2082.00 would still be credible for extending the recovery into positive territory, as would triggering the 2083.75 bias-up signal. “Compensating for the delay” would suggest a steep and substantial rally, probably into tomorrow morning.
It”s getting late for any more “backing-and-filling” that still recovers. Back under 2078.50 would start to signal the recovery had failed, and a much deeper downleg is underway.