S&P
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.00 | 2083.75 |
| …would target | 2090.25 | 2089.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.00 | 2076.00 |
| …would target | 2071.50 | 2070.25 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Sliding back up the cliff?
Pre-open bounce refueled sellers.
The pre-open bounce extended to 2080.00. It immediately improved another 2 points post-open, but was being reversed 10 minutes later. That reversal extended to within 4 ticks of the bias-down target.
A 6-point bounce was reversed to within 2 ticks of the 2070.25 bias-down target, which is close enough to neutralize its attraction. So, although the 2075.50 bias-down signal triggered after invoking its grace period, the bias-down target won”t become “unfinished business below” if not actually touched by 11:30.
Just touching the 2070.25 bias-down target would be likely also to probe the overnight lows down to 2067.50. But, what if 2070.25 isn”t actually touched?
Back above 2076.00 (being tested now by a 7-point bounce) would start to signal momentum reversing up already. Although it”s not the optimal recovery path, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above 2082.00 and higher would be credible for reversing intraday momentum up.
Otherwise, back under 2074.25 would start to signal the 7-point bounce had failed, targeting new session lows at 2067.50.
The overnight 13-point drop from
The overnight 13-point drop from 2082 to 2069 was retraced a little but further during the pre-market Wrap (recording linked below). That has continued improving to the 2080 optimal open that would begin to suggest the drop is isolated to the overnight action. Upside follow-through can be steep and substantial, and not yet being obvious in a recovery by 9:45 would start to suggest a retest of overnight lows. More details here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzcxfyb
The First Trade… Starting in the hole.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s opening break extended down through the morning to fulfill the retest of Friday”s oversold RSIs at 2083.50. Extending down through the noon hour tested the decline”s 2081.25 objective. And lower lows going into the bias environment fulfilled potential for noise down to 2078.75, with an extra point of room. Bouncing to 2086.25 into the final hour opened the door to a short-squeeze, but it never materialized. Instead the entire bounce was retraced into the cash session close.
Overnight action”s new info…
.Choppy sideways action never extended yesterday”s decline, even through Europe”s opens where selling had been resuming. But a 13-point downleg began later, dropping to 2068.75. Only 1-minute RSI diverged positively there, but that was enough to launch a 61.8% retracement of the drop back up to 2076.75.
If, then…
Fulfilling all downside objective yesterday took all of the session”s time, leaving none for rejecting the lows. Gapping up today above the late-afternoon bounce would have compensated for that delay, but the vulnerability to extending down seems to have won out. Overnight, at least, as the new downleg may have a scapegoat (Deutsche Bank offices raided) that allows knife-catchers a reason to step in. Isolating the reaction to overnight by opening in positive territory could trigger the short-squeeze that yesterday”s bias environment exit had suggested. Otherwise, the little support that is clustered 1-2 points under the 2068.75 overnight low would be the last defense against targeting 2044.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2076.50 would be likely also to probe under the 2075.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, and under 2072.50 would likely trigger it. Exiting the open above 2081.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down, and above 2085.00 likelier to trigger the 2084.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.50 | 2084.25 |
| …would target | 2090.50 | 2089.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2076.25 | 2075.50 |
| …would target | 2071.50 | 2070.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.