S&P
All unfinished business below was
All unfinished business below was neutralized Monday. But no accumulation pattern formed — or, at least, none was triggered. A recovery is possible, but not signaled. And not recovering here is very vulnerable to extending the decline considerably.
Closing under 2078.75 would have signaled a more substantial drop underway. Perhaps one is, but 2078,75 was still being overlapped at the close and not broken decisively. It was probed down to 2076.25 before the futures close, which anyway recovered to 2079.
A short-squeeze setup wasn”t exploited. Sellers didn”t exploit that opening, either. But if that wasn”t just a delay and Tuesday”s open isn”t already rallying through Monday afternoon”s 2086.25 high, then the morning is probably extending down sharply,.
Monday afternoon”s 2086.25 high printed before the final hour, and before the close trended down. Gapping up above 2086.25 Tuesday would still be credible for forming a session-long rally.
More details were discussed during the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
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Pre-close view… Squeeze play, or head-fake?
Timing windows have aligned.
The bias environment began lapsing at 2:30 by surging through a 2080.50 buy signal. The final hour was entered above the bias environment”s 2082.00 high.
All of that buying pressure came after the bias environment had probed fresh trend lows at 2077.75. That also followed neutralizing attractions below — from the oversold RSIs at Friday”s 2083.50 low to 2081.25 and then this afternoon”s 2078.75 bias-down target.
Apart from oversold RSIs at this afternoon”s low, the path is clear for a short-squeeze. So clear, that if not exploited, then buyers are truly damaged.
Back under 2082.00 (being tested now) would put into play at least a retest of the 2077.50 low, for one last chance to form a durable bottom. Back above 2086.50 would all but require extending higher through the close.
Daily Spot… L’Euro hot.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Favorably resolving Friday”s consolidation of the morning”s plunge was likely to almost literally explode higher. Monday”s open did gap up to 1.1175, and the session extended sharply higher to attack 1.1300, more than fully retracing Friday”s plunge. At least an eventual higher close above 1.1320 remains outstanding.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight and into Monday”s open 1175.00 resistance. It was neither extended nor rejected intraday, keeping alive the decline”s minimum 1158.50 target.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Very shallow strength early Monday was retraced to a fresh low as the session was spent ranging narrowly sideways under the decline”s 16.15-16.35 target.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having retested the decline”s 148-25 target Friday, without closing lower, the pattern remains conflicted by the downtrend being satisfied, but no accumulation yet indicated.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday”s late surge back above the 58.75 sell signal was rejected by Monday”s gap down back to 58.75. But the balance of the morning only ranged narrowly around 58.75 before extending down under 58.00 to reinstate the signal”s momentum.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to the 2.67 buy signal left no unfinished business below because Friday”s narrow ranging had not created any new low which might otherwise require being retested. Closing above 2.67 would still need a second consecutive higher close to confirm a rally leg has launched, and all prior to closing back under 2.64.
The end is near?
Ratcheting is now trending.
Trending has been relegated recently to between timing windows. This tactic has allowed sellers to gain ground while preserving much of their energy.
So, it”s interesting that the noon hour”s timing window has actually trended. And that trending has met a relevant test at 2081.25. So, the energy preservation tactic is being abandoned, just as selling pressure is being fulfilled.
Also, RSIs are diverging positively during the 2081.25 test,= down to 2080.50.
However…
This afternoon”s 2083.50 bias-down signal did just trigger. Its 2078.75 bias-down target is now in-play. Recovering 2083.50 through 1:30 would invalidate the signal. So would recovering 2083.50 through 1:30, if there were no interim fresh low.
In any case, back above 2083.50 would start to suggest momentum is reversing up. But that momentum meanwhile remains pointed down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 9 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday”s job openings report does have a track record of influencing price action, as it can reinforce or undermine the prior Friday”s Employment Situation report.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
9:00 AM ET
JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET