S&P
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.25 | 2089.75 |
| …would target | 1096.25 | 2095.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2084.75 | 2083.50 |
| …would target | 2080.25 | 2078.75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… The pattern persists.
The overnight range hasn”t ended. Its horizons have expanded, a little. Its 2093.00 upper-end wasn”t retested, but fresh lows have been ranging choppily around this morning”s 2086.50 bias-down signal.
2086.50 was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. An offsetting test of the 2096.00 bias-up signal is NOT in-play, and neither is the 2081.25 bias-down target. Also, the 2086.50 bias-down signal need not define the range”s lower-end.
The setup isn”t optimal, but it”s also not necessarily bullish. RSIs aren”t oversold at today”s lows, so any improvement isn”t necessarily sponsored by strong hands. Gradually working lower is slightly likelier than recovering soon — although a temporary test of 2089.75 above can”t be discounted.
The overnight range has persisted
The overnight range has persisted into the open. If any difference is relevant, it is that the range”s 2088.50 lower-end is being tested now, having held a retest of its 2093.50 upper-end. This morning”s pre-market Tour discussed the “standing stop” setup”s behavior on Mondays — Trending isn”t required to begin, beginning to trend can probe either end of the prior session”s range, and probing either end of the prior session”s range from a standing stop will then often reverse back to the range”s opposite end. Here”s the recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvptxf
The First Trade… There is a pulse.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s Employment Situation Report had reacted down to fresh lows, under a multi-session range whose lower-end had been under attack already. A steep bounce into the open didn”t prevent the intraday crowd from immediately reversing back down to fresh lows at 2083.50. And that didn”t prevent an even steeper bounce to 2099.75. But neither leg extended, as the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways into a slightly lower close around 2091.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Relatively narrow sideways ranging has been centered around 2091.00. A brief dip down to 2086.50 around midnight was recovered back to the range”s 2093.00 upper-end. It was exciting.
If, then…
Oversold RSIs at Friday”s 2083.50 low require an eventual retest. Meanwhile, Friday morning”s 2104.25 is unfinished business above. Neither attraction need be tested in either order, and neither test need reverse immediately to fulfill the other. The value now to each comes more so from whether the timing window is exited beyond either, which would suggest the next lower objective in-play. If lower, that would be 2081.25 and possibly 2078.75.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2083.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2086.50 bias-down signal at 10L:15. Exiting the open above 2095.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. And opening above 2098.50 would be likely to trigger the 2096.00 bias-up signal.
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2097.75 | 2096.00 |
| …would target | 2103.00 | 2101.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2088.00 | 2086.50 |
| …would target | 2083.00 | 2081.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.