S&P
Post-open review… Trapping more longs.
Early buyers found out the hard way.
Overnight patterns can influence only the first 15 minutes of the cash session. So, if the pre-open Symmetrical Triangle”s second surge were going to fail, then it would be obvious quickly.
Naturally, the open blipped-up a couple of points to 2115.00. But then, sellers took obvious control, reversing down to test 2108.25. Recovering that through 9:45 would have marginalized sellers, but overlapping it meant nothing more than buyers failed.
Resolving down tested the 2104.25 bias-down signal. Its reaction up only attacked 2112.00 before resolving down again to 2100.25. This is a bias-down environment, triggered under 2104.25.
Having probed fresh lows after 10:15, nothing short of exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above 2115.00 can invalidate the bias-down. Friday”s ineffectually optimistic lows have been probed, but they”re still putting up a fight.
The 2098.50 bias-down target is in-play, probably on the way to probing last week”s 2096.00 lows by at least 2-3 points. A bounce has potential to 2106.50-2108.25. Back under 2101.50 (being tested now) would signal the decline had resumed already.
The drop following Europe”s opens
The drop following Europe”s opens had bottomed in a Symmetrical Triangle. It was supported by this morning”s 2104.25 bias-down signal, and it had launched a failed surge to attack 2112. But rather than extend down, another surge attacked 2116. Now 2112 is trying to serve as support.
If the pre-open recovery attempt only trapped more longs, then the open shouldn”t delay extending down to 2106.50 and then through it. The upside potential is now 2118-2121. Details were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzcxtkh
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 1 2015
A look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The calendar is busy for a Monday. And its reports are both high-profile and influential to price action. The pre-open Fed speaker and post-open ISM number are the most relevant.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
9:05 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
1:00 PM ET
The First Trade… Not for lack of trying.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Another attempt to recover 2118.00 at the open failed Friday, more substantially than any prior recovery attempt there. Just returning to 2112.00 had signaled a bigger reversal underway, which quickly extended down to 2102.25. Bouncing to 2115.00 on a Greece headline was largely retraced, albeit stopping optimistically short of actually touching the low.
Overnight action”s new info…
Firming Sunday night extended quietly back up to 2114.00 before being reversed sharply back down to 2104.00. A Symmetrical Triangle formed there, and then an hour ago it launched a 5-point surge to 2110.75 (reacting to a Greece headline, of course). That was retraced almost as quickly, now hovering above 2104.00.
If, then…
The first breakout from a Symmetrical Triangle is often false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. Reversing the hour-old failed 5-point surge can measure another 8 or 16 points. Either would be part of fulfilling the probe under last week”s 2096.00 low by 2-3 points. This reversal must be influential during the opening 15 minutes, or else another bounce to 2114.00-2115.00 would be likelier.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2108.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
The US Senate has let
The US Senate has let another bill come down to its deadline, not surprisingly. Greece is in the headlines, also not surprising. Deutsche Bank is criticizing Fed policy, mildly surprising. Will the market react to any of it? Globex opens in 30 minutes, and you can check the chaRTroom overnight at these links:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/994-565-527
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh