S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 29 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Friday”s pre-open GDP is high-profile, but has no reliable track record for influencing price action. Much more infuential is the post-open PMI, and the reaction to its private release to institutional subscribers tends to extend when released publicly minutes later. Consumer Sentiment 15 minutes later can also be influential.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2118.75 | 2116.50 |
| …would target | 2124.75 | 2122.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2112.25 | 2110.00 |
| …would target | 2106.50 | 2104.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… A deeper detour, or else.
Post-open bounce fails to fresh lows.
The pre-open bounce from retesting the precise 2115.25 overnight low could have avoided fresh lows. But only by quickly recovering 2118.00 and extending higher.
2118.00 was recovered almost immediately, and probed up to 2120.25. Then 2118.00 was probed as support, and its recovery avoided a fresh high.
The initial surge justified ignoring sell signals. The second surge”s limit required looking at sell signals.
And a sell signal triggered quickly, probing under 2117.50. That”s the bias-down signal, and its break fell quickly to touch its 2112.00 bias-down target. Although the bias-down target held through 10:15, fresh lows have attacked 2110.00.
Despite not renewing the bias-down signal, this still is a bias-down environment which can extend lower. Meanwhile, bounces must hold tests of the 2117.50 bias-down target, but it could be probed by a couple of points.. Back above 2114.00 (being tested now) would suggest a bounce is underway.
Not already exiting the bias environment at 11:30 in recovery mode would make a probe under Tuesday”s low likely.
The overnight dip”s recovery back
The overnight dip”s recovery back to 2120 resistance was retraced entirely back down to the overnight dip”s 2115.25 low. Even in the most bullish scenario, at least a slightly lower low is likely. An exception is to already greet the open probing above 2118 and extending higher quickly. Generally, delaying any recovery action from any level is likelier to resolve down than up. That was discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxbtwk
The First Trade.,, Healthy dose of pessimism?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
How volatile was Wednesday”s opening 15 minutes of volatility? The gap up to 2107.00-2108.00 resistance was rejected down to 2102.50, and then recovered up 2115.75. How much buying pressure was expended intraday? The morning”s consolidation resolved up to trigger another bias-up, and its 2124.00 target was met at the session high. How relevant is that level? It filled the gap back to Friday”s close, and its last-minute reaction down fell 4 points. No unfinished business was left outstanding above.
Overnight action”s new info…
.Wednesday”s late dip eventually extend down to attack 2117.50 support ahead of Europe”s opens, while China”s stock exchange crashed. Lower lows briefly touched 2115.25 and then reacted back up to 2120.00 resistance.
If, then…
.Leaving unfinished business helps trending to persist between sessions. So, neutralizing so many upside attractions yesterday has sent the recovery searching for another self-preservation technique. One of those is to search for buyers at a lower level. Determining the success of last night”s search may be as simple as recovering and defending positive territory through the open. The reward is new highs above 2134.00, and the punishment could be to retest Tuesday”s 2096.00 lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2122.25 after already touching it would be unlikely to trigger the 2127.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2116.00 would be likely to trigger the 2117.50 bias-down signal.