S&P
Ladies and gentlemen, I bring
Ladies and gentlemen, I bring you the link(s) to tonight”s chaRTroom… see you there:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/039-559-609
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Not gapping up above 2107-2108
Not gapping up above 2107-2108 wasn”t supposed to recover Wednesday. More so, the consequence of a failed recovery attempt was to retest Tuesday”s 2096 low. In fact, the
Wednesday”s rally gained traction. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, and although the final hour wasn”t entered above the bias environment”s high, the 3:10-3:20 window trended to new session highs. The reward for gaining traction is to control the next timing window, by trending higher Thursday morning.
Several caveats about that upside traction. First is that Wednesday afternoon”s bias-up target was met at the high, and its test immediately reacted down 4 points to prove that it did fulfill buying pressure. Second is that 3-minute RSI diverged negatively at the high, so its retest isn”t required. And a third caveat is that the gap back to Friday”s 2124.25 close was filled, neutralizing its attraction.
Did Wednesday”s last-minute reaction down express enough pessimism to be bullish from a contrarian perspective? That would enable the rally to resume, and to extend to new highs. Otherwise, failing to hold 2117.50 would rob the rally of its traction, and likely extend down to 2112-2113. Under there would reverse Wednesday”s momentum, targeting a probe under Tuesday”s 2096 low by 2-3 points.
Here”s Wednesday”s post-market Wrap recording (chaRTroom links will be sent this evening):
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfptszk
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2129.25 | 2127.00 |
| …would target | 2135.25 | 2133.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2119.75 | 2117.50 |
| …would target | 2114.25 | 2112.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, MET BIAS-DOWN TARGET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Climbing the wall of hurry.
Relentless uptrend is fulfilling upside attractions.
Today”s ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows has extended well beyond 2107.00-2108.00 resistance. The post-open 2108.00 buy signal peaked quickly upon probing its 2113.00 bias-up target by 2 points.
The late-morning 2114.00 buy signal has developed more slowly, but relentlessly, and more substantially. Extending higher to product overbought RSIs helped to secure dips from reversing down. And those dips recovered every pullback limit”s test to fresh highs.
The afternoon”s 2124.00 bias-up target was just attacked to within 2 ticks. Meeting it to within 3 ticks disqualifies it from being “unfinished business above.”
Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were essentially overbought again at the high. But 1-minute was borderline, as well as making its own lower high, and it”s getting a little late. Hesitating through the bottom of the hour would likely trade flat-to-lower for the balance of the session.
One more attraction above is outstanding, which is the gap back to Friday”s 2124.25 close. Filling it isn”t required, not until recovering back to within its orbit. Unless the close is back under 2118.00, today”s rally will be likely to resume tomorrow.
That”s within 2 ticks of the afternoon”s 2124.00 bias-up target.
Daily Spot…Not so fast there, Euro.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having extended down considerably on two consecutive sell signals, testing 1.0820 support reacted up Wednesday on favorable Grexit rumors, holding the 1.0910 bounce limit, and maintaining the 1.0750 target.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Only shallow weakness Tuesday night and Wednesday following Tuesday”s deep break to 1186.00, so the break wasn”t confirmed, but at least a probe of fresh low remains likely.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down at Wednesday”s open probed Tuesday”s low, but the session only ranged sideways narrowly instead of extending down another dime to 16.55 support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday”s flight-to-safety wasn”t needed Wednesday, allowing for at least partial retracement from 156-11 down to 155-11. But that was recovered almost entirely as stocks climbed even further, which undermines the decline from resuming soon.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows testing 57.45 at Wednesday”s open was recovered temporarily into positive territory, but only to reverse back down to the lows and still targeting 55.00.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Spiking up at Wednesday”s open tried to confirm that Tuesday”s late recovery had ultimately held the 2.86 pullback objective. But the session held within Tuesday”s range, needing to recover 2.91 for a recovery to be credible.