S&P
Post-open review… Still low participation?
Overly fulfilling one expectation prevented fulfilling the other.
Not already recovering the weekend”s lower probes made the 2113.00 sleeper low”s test likely, indicating an early short-entry. It was tested, thoroughly.
Testing it early could have launched a recovery. But ounce limits held, while producing lower lows and avoiding any higher high. That has extended down to 2104.50.
That”s 2 points under the 2106.50 renewed bias-down target (for not recovering the 2115.75 bias-down target by 10:15). This leg”s next lower objective is 2099.75-2100.50.
Actually, there was an interim renewed bias-down target at 2110.00. Recovering it through 11:30 would seal a bottom. Back above 2108.50 would start to signal 2110.00 will at least be tested.
Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at 2104.50 make its retest likelier. And then likely to be broken by at least 4 points so long as bounce limits continue holding.
The weekend”s sell-off isn”t being
The weekend”s sell-off isn”t being isolated to Globex, as the pre-open bounce only touched this morning”s 2122.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Its reaction down is now attacking the 2115.25 overnight low. And that”s despite another weak GDP reading, which would seem to inhibit a bearish rate hike. Will a test of the week-old “lower prior high” in the 2113 area be able to end the weekend”s sell-off? We reviewed that during the pre-market Tour, and its recording is linked here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybktts
The First Trade… Diametric opinions intact.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap down to the recent range”s lower-end ranged choppily sideways, as participation thinned ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Bounces back to unchanged at 2124.25 held two tests as resistance, with no traction gained either way.
Overnight action”s new info…
Even the holiday”s thinner market environment has shown no shortage of sentiment. Three dips and three bounces, each of significance. Sunday night”s opening bounce feel from 2127.00 to 2118.50 early Monday morning, before bouncing again to 2126.00. Its reaction down Monday evening attacked Sunday night”s low before bouncing to 2124.50 into Europe”s opens. That reacted down the hardest, testing this morning”s 2115.75 bias-down target. Now its reaction up is testing this morning”s 2122.50 bias-down signal as resistance.
If, then…
The likeliest path higher would isolate a sell-off in the Globex-only timing window, to be recovered already into the open. That was my comment Monday morning before Sunday night”s drop had been recovered fully. I did also note that Sunday night”s 2118.50 low could be retested, but last night”s attack to within 2 ticks would have sufficed. The 9-point plunge to 2115.25 may be starting to damage support. We”ll still give the upside every benefit of the doubt so long as bias-down doesn”t trigger, and more so if the open is back in positive territory. But even the plunge low can be probed today if buyers aren”t back in control very soon.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2122.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2118.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Globex is booting up, and
Globex is booting up, and here are the links to view it overnight. I”m monitoring this action live. Sunday night had bounced 2-1/2 points initially to 2127 before tumbling to 2118.50. As if that wasn”t volatile enough, the entire tumble was retraced back to 2125.50. A dip into close is essentially flat, almost 30 minutes past tonight”s Globex open.
Adobe is the XP-friendly link. Its mic won”t initiate, and I haven”t yet heard back from their techs for a resolution. (Ironically, the other xp-friendly software”s mic has a mind of its own.) When you”ve logged-in, please excuse the big data hole from this afternoon, which QCharts hasn”t recognized for being halted.
ADOBE (WinXP friendly):
https://meet29978259.adobeconnect.com/memoriald…
ilinc/Mitel (non-xp friendly)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 26 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A lot of reports are crammed into the holiday-shortened week. Kicking it off is the highest-profile and most influential among them, Durable Goods. That tends to set the tone for reacting to the day”s additional reports, but that might lose meaning with this quantity. Three housing sector reports, two Fed surveys (which don”t usually impact price action when released individually), PMI and Consumer Confidence. If the data come in poorly as has been the trend, that will be challenging for the noon hour”s hawkish Fed speaker to argue seriously for near-term rate hikes.
Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Stanley Fischer Speaks – hawkish
12:30 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET