S&P
The First Trade… Slow and steady is not a race.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning”s recovery from the overnight dip into negative territory was able to extend higher through the bias environment. But not beyond, other than a blip-up before the close. Otherwise, choppy ranging throughout the afternoon was centered around 2128.00-2130.25. No traction was gained for the effort, only a new high close, which occurred without probing prior highs.
Overnight action”s new info…
The relatively narrow, choppy range has persisted. Alternating between probing 1-2 points under 2128.00, and piercing 2130.25 above.
If, then…
This being a Friday, the morning”s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. This being a .three-day weekend, thinning participation makes trending difficult to start, and difficult to end once started, or to reverse if ended. Low-volume environments can reflect the will of weaker-handed participants, so the strong-handed distribution up here I”ve been documenting doesn”t prevent a break higher from extending in this low-volume environment.
First Trade…
Exiting the open above 2131.00 would be likely at least to test the 2133.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2133.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2121.75 would be likely to trigger the 2123.25 bias-down signal.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2135.75 | 2133.00 |
| …would target | 2142.00 | 2139.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2126.00 | 2123.25 |
| …would target | 2120.50 | 2117.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Rallying through Thursday morning recovered
Rallying through Thursday morning recovered the overnight drop, and then some. The pre-holiday ceiling put an end to that. The balance of the session ranged choppily around 2128-2130.25. Reacting down repeatedly from resistance was more brief than shallow — this market does not lack sentiment, only participation which would enable it to fully express that sentiment.
Meanwhile, keep in mind that the lack of participation allows trending to cut either way. Resistance has been chipped away as much, if not more so, than support. And no matter how difficult it may be to start trending on Fridays, ending it is as difficult, as is reversing the trend”s direction.
Here”s the recording of Thursday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybkpjz
And here”s a link to Adobe Connect to monitor the market overnight. Please let me know if you encounter any issues, and any other observations, but I found it to be very easily loaded and stable:
https://meet29978259.adobeconnect.com/chaRTroom-test/
[The ilinc/Mitel option will not be available until tomorrow morning]
Pre-close view… Teetering.
Hovering comfortably at session highs… too comfortably?
A reaction down from testing 2130.25 resistance slid to 2125.75. And then it recovered completely. That was fast.
That was fast, shallow and temporary. All hallmarks of an environment that is lacking sponsorship.
That can cut either way, since resistance above the rally”s 2128.00 target is no less chipped away than support at 2125.25 down to 2122.50.
Daily Spot… Counter-trending.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging narrowly Thursday essentially confirmed that Wednesday”s session did not fulfill the required third lower close outstanding. It also did not fulfill the required third lower close outstanding. Lower lows remain in-play..
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging Thursday continually overlapped 1205.00 whose break would signal momentum reversing down. Back above 1208.50 and 1213.00 would signal the pullback had ended, and targeting a retest of the recent 1232.00 high.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly between 17.00-17.25 avoided extending the decline or recovering it, still needing a break either way to signal the next leg.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s optimistic low may require being retested, but Thursday”s bounce widened the gap well above the 153-02 bounce limit to test 154-16. A reaction down has room to 153-30 before suggesting momentum is reversing down.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday and extending higher retraced 61.8% of the drop from recent highs back to 60.80. Another downleg targeting 55.00 would be triggered under 59.75. There is otherwise no bounce limit in-play.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday still reacted favorably to the EIA report. That reaction was retraced back to the open”s gap up, sapping momentum from the pattern. But an attraction back up to 3.08 remains intact.