S&P
Still hanging on the hole’s edge.
Hovering at session highs.
Probing above the 2128.00 bias-up signal this morning was likely to touch 2129.00, if not also 2130.25. Both were touched.
The noon hour”s narrow range has centered around 2129.00, repeatedly holding tests of 2130.25 resistance. This afternoon”s bias parameters just triggered no-bias.
Participation is starting to evaporate. Not so much as it will tomorrow, but the pattern has become more vulnerable to knee-jerk reactions. That can cut either way.
Back under 2127.25 would be attracted to test 2122.50. A fresh high might probe above the 2131.00 bias-up signal, but only temporarily if originated during this afternoon”s no-bias environment.
Regardless, the easy trade is done. One strategy this afternoon is to be stopped into a long or short beyond the 2128.00-2130.00 range, and then to be quick to exit what would likely be retraced. Otherwise, I”ll be monitoring for those extremes to fade.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 22 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Friday”s pre-open CPI normally would be the only influential report of a pre-holiday session. But any volatility that it triggers may quickly become inhibited by anxiousness ahead of Fed Chair Yellen”s afternoon speech. And that comes on a day of early bond market closure. Good to the last drop?
John Williams Speaks — dove
THU 7:00 PM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
**Janet Yellen Speaks — dove
1:00 PM ET
Bond market early close
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2134.00 | 2131.00 |
| …would target | 2139.75 | 2136.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2127.50 | 2124.50 |
| …would target | 2123.00 | 2120.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Climbing up to the edge of the hole.
Post-open rally is attacking resistance.
The very late pre-open surge to 2122.00 was retraced entirely by the first two post-open minutes. That pessimism kept optimism in-check, and price has trended higher since then. This morning”s 2128.00 bias-up signal was just touched.
Being a no-bias environment, a test of the bias-up signal should define the range”s upper-end. It didn”t require being tested (the 2119.25 bias-down signal wasn”t actually touched). And it doesn”t require holding precisely (it can be probed, either to 2129.00 or to 2130.25).
Any probing above 2128.00 before the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30 should be retraced. And meanwhile, back under 2126.00 (now being tested) would start to signal momentum reversing down, probably to 2123.25, if not also to 2121.00.
Not dipping, and also not extending before 11:30 comes within view, would allow the recovery to extend. But there”s no requirement for that today.
Thanks to a very recent
Thanks to a very recent 3-point surge, overnight flat-to-higher ranging has recovered back up to within 3 ticks of yesterday”s last-minute test of 2122.50 support. The steep trajectory seems promising — and the market always keeps its promises, right? Right? Right. Not resuming and extending this last-minute optimism through the opening 5 minutes would make me suspect that the next 10 minutes trend back down. Maintaining the recovery above 2122.50 through 9:45 would be credible for extending higher this morning. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording for more detail:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjxwvh